DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis September 1, 2012
By US Gen. Martin Dempsey’s assertion Thursday, Aug. 30 that the US would not be “complicit” in an Israel strike against Iran, President Barack Obama was telling Israel: You are on your own! See how you manage without special US weapons and US military backup, including a shield against missile counter-attack. debkafile: A secret US-Russian deal is in the works. President Putin has cut off military ties with Iran and Syria, but Obama is having a hard time reciprocating by making Netanyahu give up on force against Iran.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 30, 2012
A plague on all your houses, says Vladimir Putin as he pulls Russia and its army away from escalating Middle East violence in consequence of the foreign intervention he anticipates in Syria and an attack on Iran. Russian arms deliveries are cut off to Iran and Syria.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 29, 2012
Russian naval vessels have unexpectedly departed the Syrian Mediterranean port of Tartus and Russian arms shipments to Syria have been suddenly discontinued. debkafile’s military sources reveal that those and other military steps indicate that the Russians are rapidly drawing away from the Syrian arena to avoid getting caught up in the escalating hostilities expected to arise from military intervention by the US, Europe and a number of Arab states. Russian intelligence seems certain that this foreign intervention is imminent.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 19, 2012
Bashar Assad kept his cool after losing his closest intimates and senior axe men of his savage campaign against the rebels. He replaced them all in a jiffy and carried on his war without breaking stride.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 12, 2012
Vladimir Putin has seized on the Eurozone crisis to buy controlling shares in Greek and Cypriot oil and gas fields and infrastructure in return for bailing out their sinking economies. President Vladimir Putin had more than one fish to fry in dispatching a large flotilla of Russian warships to the eastern Mediterranean. They are on hand not just for the Syrian crisis but also to secure the hot new energy acquisitions about to fall in Moscow’s lap.
DEBKAfile Special Report July 5, 2012
Moscow has removed the gloves in its defense of Syrian ruler Bashar Assad. Wednesday, July 4, senior Russian official Ruslan Pukhov warned: “If the Syrian regime is changed by force or if Russia doesn't like the outcome, it most likely will respond by selling S-300s to Iran." This threat gave substance to the hints thrown out by Russian President Vladimir Putin during his June 25 visit to Israel about breaking the UN arms embargo against Iran. debkafile’s military sources disclose that Israel has developed counter-measures for this advanced Russian missile.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 28, 2012
Saying “An Islamist flood threatens us all, the Russian president put before the Israeli prime minister propositions of a secret conduit through Moscow to Tehran and help for mending Turkish-Israeli relations in return for a Russian stake in Mediterranean oil.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 26, 2012
Unconfirmed first reports from British, French and Turkish sources say British special forces crossed from Turkey into northern Syria Tuesday, May 26, advancing up to 10 kilometers inside the country. Those sources also report heavy fighting around the Republican Guards compound guarding Bashar Assad's palace on Mount Qaisoun overlooking Damascus. This two-pronged assault on the Assad regime, if confirmed, began at the end of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Israel. It challenges his repeated objections to foreign intervention.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 25, 2012
The high point of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s noteworthy 90-minute talk with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem Monday, June 25, was Putin’s firm assurance that Iran would not get a nuclear bomb. He stressed it would be against Russian interests, debkafile reports exclusively. “We [Russians] know more about what is going on with Iran’s (nuclear) capabilities than the Americans,” he said, indicating that Israel would be better served spending in Moscow some of the time taken up by endless palaver with the Americans.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis June 25, 2012
The Muslim Brotherhood’s rise to power in Egypt will have pushed aside Iran and energy as top issues when Monday, June 25, Russian President Vladimir Putin on a short visit to Israel meets Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. On this at least they have common ground: The Muslim Brotherhood governments rolling out along Middle East shores with US encouragement – Libya, last year; Egypt, yesterday; and Syria, tomorrow – are seen as a threat to regional stability rivaling even the menace of a nuclear-armed Iran.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 21, 2012
Russian President Vladimir Putin started putting his plans for Russia to displace the US at key Middle East points at the Moscow nuclear talks and the G20 summit in Mexico where he enlisted China and Iran to defeat Washington’s plans. Starting out with a scheme of revenge for Libya, his horizon has since widened to blocking US President Barack Obama's Arab Revolt objectives and his policies for Syria and Iran.
DEBKAfile DEBKA Weekly June 19, 2012
Russian President Vladimir Putin is in over-drive to recover Moscow’s overriding influence in the Arab world, which it lost to the United States in 1973. To roll the march of history back 39 years, Putin is enlisting China and Iran. The latest DEBKA-Net-Weekly issue out last Friday focuses on Russia’s comeback and Barack Obama’s prospects of pushing it back, given his reliance on the sympathy of the Muslim Brotherhood and the backing of an unpopular Turkey and a systematically disempowered Israel.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 19, 2012
debkafile postulates Syria’s division into spheres of influence as the big powers move in.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 18, 2012
Military tensions around Syria shot up again Monday, June 18, with an Iranian report that a joint Russian-Chinese-Iranian exercise is to take place in Syria, called “the biggest of its kind ever staged in the Middle East,” with 90,000 personnel, 400 air planes and 900 tanks taking part. debkafile: This would be the first time Russia and China have deployed substantial military strength in the Middle East. It points to their determination to deter a US-lead military operation against the Assad regime.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 17, 2012
Moscow is using the time up until Russian President Vladimir Putin faces US President Barack Obama across the G20 conference table in Los Cabos, Mexico Sunday, June 17 – or its corridors - to ship sophisticated anti-air, anti-ship arms to Syria able to prevent a no-fly zone being imposed. A fleet of Russian warships is also heading for Tartus. If the two presidents come to terms on Syria and Iran, the planned US and allied intervention in Syria may be delayed. If not - quickened.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 15, 2012
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 8, 2012
A new contact group, a Syrian military council for provisional rule under the group’s orders, and Russian-Iranian moves to make Assad step down – these are the key points of Obama’s plan for Syria, part of his grand design that also embraces Iran and its nuclear program.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 1, 2012
Obama focuses on obtaining Vladmir Putin’s consent to deploying 5,000 largely Russian monitors in Syria in order to gain a partner also for his Iran nuclear diplomacy. HIzballah risks being cut off from its heavy weapons arsenal hidden in Syria.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 31, 2012
US President Barack Obama, widely expected to pursue direct action against Syrian ruler Bashar following the Houla atrocity, is preoccupied with what he regards as the greater threat to the world: a potential grab for the huge Syrian stock of chemical and biological weapons by Al Qaeda or other terrorist organizations, to prevent which, debkafile reports, he has reached out to Russian President Vladimir Putin with a fresh plan for Syria: 5,000 international monitors, most Russian, to guard those stocks.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report May 29, 2012
Vladimir Putin, after taking stock of the early days of his third presidency, concludes that Moscow’s handling of the al-Houla massacre and Syria’s ongoing collapse into civil war will go down as a Russian foreign policy failure. He personally comes out of it as the patron of a bloodthirsty tyrant. He has quietly ordered the Russian arms ship Professor Katsman to leave the Syrian port before unloading its cargo. Putin is now taxed with determining his next steps on Syria.