DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis November 8, 2015
Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu meets President Barack Obama at the White House on Monday, Nov. 9, after four grave setbacks: Deepenng Russian and Iranian military intervention in Syria inching up to Israel’s borders; Bashar Assad’s survival against all predictions; the strengthening of the Islamic State; and a deadly Palestinian terror campaign pervading the country. Even if they agree on Israel’s security needs in the coming years and the scale of US military aid, Middle East volatility may quickly obviate all forecasts.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 20, 2015
Israeli leaders’ main business with visiting US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter when they meet Monday, July 20, is their concern about Tehran’s possible endgame in fighting the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon will ask Carter if the US has any control over the Iranian command centers, and is in a position to stop Tehran harnessing Hizballah and Syrian troops to help its Shiite militias push ISIS onto the Golan and the Jordanian borders, so as to remove the threat to Tehran’s allies in Damascus and Baghdad.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 16, 2015
Khamenei didn’t need a nuke to get what he wanted from the world powers. The threat posed by an elaborate nuclear program was enough for him to parlay into world-class status as a nuclear threshold state.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 16, 2015
Obama saw the Arab world engulfed in ghastly bloody wars in the foreseeable future and was confirmed in his determination to make Iran America’s top strategic ally in the Middle East. Arab rulers are still reeling from the blow and finding it hard to adapt to their new circumstances.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 16, 2015
Netanyahu still hopes Congress will throw out Obama’s nuclear deal, but is on guard for emergencies by a bid for a unity government and warning the armed forces to stand ready for unexpected regional changes.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis July 15, 2015
The Netanyahu government, like Saudi Arabia and Egypt, can only beat their heads futilely against the iron wall Barack Obama has built for Iran with the nuclear accord the six powers signed in Vienna Tuesday, July 14. Israel has the most to lose. It has been downgraded from its favored status in Washington and replaced by Iran. By this big geopolitical step, the US President has shifted the ground in the region, not only dumping Israel but the Arab world as a whole - and, incidentally, the Palestinians as well.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 21, 2015
Israel’s National Security Adviser Yossi Cohen was invited to join two top US officials for dinner in Washington on June 15 to try and amend the disastrous nuclear accord taking shape between the six world powers and Iran, before it was too late. This meeting, arranged by CIA Director John Brennan, is revealed here for the first time by debkafile. National Security Adviser Susan Rice and senior nuclear negotiator Wendy Sherman let Cohen present Israel’s case for a better deal for Israeli and American security - and then turned him down flat.
Saudi king, followed by GCC rulers, snubs Obama on summit. US fails to isolate Netanyahu on nuclear deal
DEBKAfile Special Report May 11, 2015
Saudi King Salman’s last-minute cancellation of his White House summit with US President Obama was seen as a calculated snub for the president’s Iran and Mid East policies. Two senior Gulf rulers then opted out of the Camp David summit Obama scheduled for Wednesday, May 13 at Camp David: Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isaa Al Khalifa and UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan. They meet after Secretary of State John Kerry failed to override Gulf resistance to the US nuclear deal with Iran.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis May 9, 2015
The battle for Qalamoun has suddenly become a critical regional contest for the Iran-Syrian-Hizballah alliance at large and its three prime movers, Syrian President Bashar Assad, Hizballah leader Hassan Nastrallah, and Iran’s Gen. Qassem Soleimani, head of the Al Qods Brigades. The Obama administration has launched a new plan to drive a wedge in the Revolutionary Guards leadership by elevating its leader Gen. Jaafari to the regime’s “good guy” and denouncing Gen. Soleimani as the “bad guy" - hoping that degrading him causes Iran to pull in its horns in Syria, Iraq and Yemen.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis April 17, 2015
Thursday and Friday, April 16-17, two branches of Al Qaeda took the lead in violent conflicts, catapulting key areas of the Middle East into more peril. In Yemen, Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and in Iraq, the Islamic State (ISIS), launched new offensives 3.050 kilometer apart. debkafile: Both branches of the Islamist terror movement used the absence of competent adversarial troops on the ground – American and Saudi - to push forward in the two arenas. They also exploited the contradictions in Washington’s attitude towards their foe, Tehran.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 8, 2015
Obama’s detente with Iran and recognition of Bashar Assad’s key role in Syria has produced an incredibly sinister new twist in the Syrian war. debkafile reveals: The Yarmouk refugee camp and its 16,000 occupants face not one enemy, but two: the Islamic State and Assad’s army, which opened the way for the ISIS attack. Assad first agreed to split energy revenues with ISIS and went on to outsource the terrorists for a demonstration in Yarmouk to allies and foes alike that he holds the whip hand in the Syrian war and the fate of the Palestinians.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis April 6, 2015
“If anyone messes with Israel, America will be there.” This conciliatory message was issued by US President Barack Obama in a New York Times interview Monday, April 6. In it, he urged Israel to accept the nuclear deal as the “best bet” and rely on America to “have its back” against Iranian or any other hostility. debkafile: This message, though important, does not cover Iranian’s ongoing aggressive drive for regional expansion by conventional military means backed by terror, or loosen the noose Iran is already tightening around Israel’s borders.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis April 4, 2015
Tehran produced a short document Friday, April 3, to dispute the account of the outcome of the Lausanne nuclear negotiations as presented in Washington the day before. The US is accused of "spinning" legallly non-binding "solutions" to cover up gaps on enrichment, sanctions, research and development and verification. All sanctions must be annulled in one day upon Iran’s implementation of the final accord, the Tehran document insists, and new sanctions banned. Inspections are ignored including “the verification mechanisms” promised by President Obama.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 26, 2015
Obama has reduced relations with Israel to an all-time low, a sacrifice on the alter of his deepening ties with Tehran.
Iranian Al Qods chief on landmark visit to Amman as guest of Jordan’s national intelligence director
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 9, 2015
debkafile reveals exclusively that Gen. Qassem Soleiman, commander of the Revolutionary Guards elite Al Qods Brigades, paid a groundbreaking visit last Thursday, March 5, to Jordan as guest of Gen. Faisal Al-Shoulbaki, director of General Intelligence and a trusted adviser to King Abdullah II. The visit, encouraged by Obama administration policy, showed one of America’s oldest Sunni Arab allies recognizing the trending Mid East reality to jump the lines over to Tehran. Iran’s grab for influence is reaching from four capitals, Baghdad, Damascus, Sanaa, Beirut to a fifth, Amman.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 22, 2015
The US and Iran are in a last-ditch effort to rescue their nuclear diplomacy before it falls into deep crisis. Some observers say the talks are beyond saving. The Obama administration may have hit the limit of its concessions; and Iran won’t give way on centrifuges and enriched uranium stocks. debkafile finds the US, Iran and Israel in a three-way race, each aiming for a different finishing line. Washington wants a nuclear deal in the bag by March 31; Tehran aims for June; while Binyamin Netanyahu nixes the existing US-Iranian draft.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 8, 2015
The strings of the pro-Iranian Houthi rebels’ coup which toppled the Yemeni government in Sanaa were pulled from Tehran and Washington. Their partnership helped the Houthis reach their goal, currently confined to parts of central Yemen and all of the North. debkafile: The uprising’s dominant figure is none other than Ali Abdullah Saleh, ousted as Yemen president in 2012. Saudi Arabia, the Gulf emirates, Jordan and Israel are watching the US-Iranian partnership in Yemen with deep foreboding. They fear the Obama administration is using the war on Islamists as a façade for promotingTehran’s regional ambitions.
DEBKAfile Special Report February 5, 2015
The UAE suspended its participation in the US-led coalition against ISIS in Iraq after the capture of Jordanian pilot Lt. Mu’ath al Kassasbeh by the Islamic State revealed the absence of personnel and facilities on hand for rescuing coalition air crews falling into enemy hands. The Jordanian pilot was subsequently burned alive. debkafile: The UAE contributed the largest and most modern air force in the Gulf region. But the entire coalition is fraying over the profound concern of all the Arab participants over America's expanding cooperation with Iran.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 13, 2015
The Islamic State’s elite unit wiped out the forward command group of the a commando force belonging to Iran’s Al Qods Brigades early Monday, Jan. 12, killing its commander, Gen. Mehdi Norouzi, at Hashimiyah north of Baghdad. debkafile exclusively reveals ISIS's new tactic of systematically taking down high Iranian officers to throw their forces into disarray. The jihadis affirm the deaths of 555 Iranian officers in four months. Israel’s deep concerns about ISIS effectiveness and close US-Iranian collaboration in Iraq were brushed aside in Washington.
Is Obama ready for an about-face to recognize Assad? Will Syria provide the strike force against ISIS?
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 14, 2014
Unconfirmed reports swirled around Arab capitals Sunday, Dec. 14, that President Barack Obama, in league with Moscow and Tehran, had turned his Syrian policy on its head to recognize Bashar Assad’s rule. He was said ready to accept the Syrian army as the backbone of the force battling the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant. If true, the Middle East faces another strategic upheaval – and one in the eye for Israel and the Gulf. US-Russian cooperation on Syria and Palestinians would help overcome the Ukraine breach and expand US-Iranian rapprochement.