DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 18, 2016
Obama and Putin have no intention of cutting Turkey and Saudi Arabia into their joint plans for the Syrian military conflict or future. Erdogan, while bitterly opposed to their sponsorship of the Kurds, will think twice before stepping into Syria.
DEBKAfile Special Report February 14, 2016
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan clearly took a calculated risk when he ordered a two-hour cross-border artillery bombardment Saturday, Feb. 13 of Syrian army forces positioned around the northern Syrian town of Azaz and the Kurdish YPG militia units which two days earlier took control of the former Syrian military air base of Minagh some six kilometers from the Turkish border. All eyes are now on Moscow. Much depends on Russia’s comeback for the artillery bombardment of its Syrian and Kurdish allies. It is up to Putin to decide when and how to strike back – if at all.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 25, 2016
The US and Russia are in the process of a military buildup in the Kurdish areas of northern Syria. It is ranged along a narrow strip of land 85 km long, stretching from Hassakeh in the east up to the Kurdish town of Qamishli on the Syrian-Turkish border. Facing them from across that border is a parallel buildup of Turkish strength. This highly-charged convergence of three foreign armies along a tense borderland is reported here by debkafile’s military sources. It is too soon to determine whether the three are operating in sync or at odds.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 14, 2016
Russia is preparing an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) space for Syria. It consists of layer upon layer of overlapping sophisticated and lethal surface-to-air missile systems. Moscow is also planning to strengthen the Syrian-Turkish border defenses.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis December 21, 2015
The northern Syria battlefield close to the Turkish border will have a greater impact on determining Syria’s future than any Security Council resolution. A very large mixed bag of combatants consists of Russia, the Kurdish YPG militia, most of the important rebel groups - including radical Sunni organizations tied to Al Qaeda, such as the Nusra Front and Ahram al-Sham - not to mention Iran and Shiite Hizballah and the jihadist Islamic State. So long as no one gains the upper hand, there will be progress in the talks starting next month for ending the war.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 8, 2015
While China joins Russian forces in the Syrian war to seek out Uyghur jihadists fighting with Nusra Front and ISIS, Turkey builds up the Uyghur settlement in Syria with a view to annexation.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 8, 2015
Russian warplanes’ breaches of Turkish airspace were no accident, but part of Putin’s strategy for stretching the Russian “defensive bubble” in Latakia, as in Kaliningrad.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 10, 2015
The Russian force’s missions are to stabilize the Assad regime by bolstering his flagging military on all warfronts in collaboration with Iran, while attacking all rebel forces, especially those with Chechen fighters.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 3, 2015
A new consortium is taking shape for building a Mediterranean gas pipeline linking Israel, Turkey Cyprus and possibly Italy. Gazprom has a good chance to take over investment and security.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 30, 2015
The campaign against ISIS launched by the US and Turkey is running into havoc because Washington and Ankara are at cross-purposes on targets, with Ankara using it to hit Kurds.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis July 27, 2015
Syrian President Bashar Assad, in his first public speech in a year, Sunday, July 26, could afford to admit to loss of territory, after being handed Iran’s new rehabilitation plan for his army, debkafile reveals. Divisions and brigades are rebuilt into three armored commando super-divisions, one each for the northern, southern and Damascus fronts. The 4th Division would still defend Damascus. The 14th Division of Special Forces gets fresh officers under Iranian commanders. The US-Tehran nuclear accord effectively brings an Iranian military presence ever closer to the borders of Israel and Jordan
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 25, 2015
After hree rounds of Turkish bombing attacks on the Islamic State in northern Syria, Ankara and Washington agreed Saturday, July 25, to name the security zone covered by a “partial no fly zone” they had declared in northern Syria the “Islamic State free zone.” This name represents a US-Turkish concession to Iran of immunity for its allies, Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hizballah, in order to gain Tehran’s cooperation in the campaign against ISIS. This deal advances Syrian-Hizballah hold on northern Syria against Islamist assaults, but drops the Kurds by the wayside.
Jordan launches war on ISIS in Iraq, Turkish warplanes hit ISIS in Syria. US, Israel involved in both ops
DEBKAfile Special Report July 24, 2015
The Middle East woke up Friday, July 24, to two new, fully-fledged wars launched by Jordan and Turkey against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant as its forces advanced on their borders. The US and Israel are involved in both campaigns. Jordanian armored, commando and air forces are already operating deep inside Iraq, aided by Cobra helicopters provided by Israel, while Friday morning, Turkey conducted its first cross-border air strike against ISIS targets in Syria. Both governments also carried mass arrests of suspected Islamist terrorists.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 2, 2015
It has always been dangerous to predict Bashar Assad’s downfall, even now after his army and Hizballah have experienced grave military reverses. The US-backed rebels in the south are not doing too well either.
Turkey and Jordan said preparing buffer zones inside Syria. Israeli air support mooted. Putin issues warning
DEBKAfile Special Report June 30, 2015
Turkish and Jordanian armies were reported on June 30 to be getting ready to cross into Syria and set up security buffer zones – to fight ISIS, oppose the Assad regime and stem the never-ending flow of refugees. It is not clear if they are coordinated. Turkey has prepared 18,000 troops for the operation. Its air force is to impose a no-fly zone against Syrian flights. The Jordanian army is also on the ready to go in and said to be seeking Israel’s air force participation for air cover and a parallel no-fly zone in the south.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 2, 2015
Iran displayed exceptional cyber war skills by blacking out most of Turkey’s cities for twelve hours to punish Turkey for his policy shift towards the Saudi-led Sunni coalition.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 5, 2015
The Turkish and Pakistani prime ministers have worked on details of nuclear-sharing and military collaboration among the three Sunni powers initiated by Saudi King Salman to counter Iran’s drive for Shiite domination.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 26, 2015
Egypt and Israel are left out on a limb by the Saudi king Salman’s defection to supporting the Muslim Brotherhood and dialogue with Ankara, rather than helping Cairo to stand up to the new ISIS threat from next-door Libya and backing Egypt and Israel against Iran.
DEBKAfile Special Report December 8, 2014
US military sources revealed Monday, Dec. 8, that Israel’s air strikes near Damascus the day before wiped out Russian hardware including missiles dispatched post haste to help Syria and Hizballah frustrate a US no-fly zone plan for northern Syria. The Kremlin has warned that any no-fly zone over Syria would be treated as direct US intervention in the Syria war, and incur Russian military intervention. The advanced anti-air missiles and radar Moscow sent Syria and Hizballah to back up this warning were destroyed by Israel. Damascus threatens Israel with “unimaginable harm.”
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 12, 2014
The Obama strategy has drawn criticism for investing too little to achieve a short, sharp campaign to eradicate ISIS. Regional governments have too few troops to spare.