DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 11, 2016
The dickering for a compromise on a ceasefire in Syria has not shaken the Obama-Putin pact which gives Russian the leading military role in the conflict. The ceasefire lines will reflect the US and Russian lines east and west respectively of the Euphrates River.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 28, 2016
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani likes the Obama-Putin pact for Syria for rescuing Iran out of an expensive blind alley, but, in Tehran’s parallel government, Khamenei calls the shots and he has not uttered.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 26, 2015
Believing he was cheated by Obama, Putin has joined up with Tehran to seize control of Syria and Iraq at the expense of American interests.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 7, 2015
The world’s largest submarine, the Dmitri Donskoy (TK-208), Nato-coded Typhoon, is sailing towards Syria, debkafile reports exclusively. Aboard are 20 Bulava intercontinental ballistic missiles, each carrying 6-10 MIRV nuclear warheads. The Russian sub, escorted by two anti-sub warfare ships, is due to arrive in Syrian waters in 10 days time and so top up the new Russian military deployment in Syria. The coming DEBKA Weekly reveals Moscow’s operational planning for this mighty force and its potential impact on US Middle East policy – and Israel.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 6, 2015
The Nusra Front’s defeat of a CIA-trained rebel force under the command of Natim al-Hassan may deepen US intervention in the Syrian conflict.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 16, 2015
Khamenei didn’t need a nuke to get what he wanted from the world powers. The threat posed by an elaborate nuclear program was enough for him to parlay into world-class status as a nuclear threshold state.
DEBKAfile DEBKA Weekly July 15, 2015
The coming DEBKA Weekly out Friday looks deep into the post-traumatic repercussions of the six world powers’ acceptance of Iran’s nuclear program. The veteran warhorse Druze leader Walid Jumblatt commented: “This is the end of the Arab Umah (nation);” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said: “A broad front can now fight ISIS” – in reference to Barack Obama’s plan to turn the fight over to Iran; and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu protested against a world which “gambled with Israel’s future.”
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis April 18, 2014
The Kerry-Lavrov “de-escalation” recipe for Ukraine, concluded in Geneva Thursday, April 17, consists of the same ingredients as their previous deals: a slick-sounding compromise that the US and Russian can more or less live with; a gloss over the real elements at issue between them; and a deal that goes over the heads of the prime movers involved in the conflict. By Friday, the two rival camps in Ukraine were digging in their heels against it. Though threatened with sanctions, Vladimir Putin is waiting to see if the West makes the Kiev government moderate its positions.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 10, 2014
Moscow would prefer a Ukraine federation respecting provincial minority rights to a Russian invasion.
DEBKAfile Special Report March 14, 2014
The profound West-Russian discord on Ukraine was accentuated rather than eased by the six hours of talks held by US Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in London Friday, March 14. Still poles apart – “no single vision” - they addressed reporters separately. Moscow would not consider calling off Sunday’s Crimean referendum, which the US and Europe judges illegal and for which Kerry warned there would be “consequences.” Putin will not decide on his next steps on Ukraine until the “will of the Crimean people” is known.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 13, 2014
The last Western hope for averting the Crimean referendum Sunday and a major showdown between the two world powers rested with Chancellor Angela Merkel. But even she failed to sway Putin.
Russia launches paratroop exercise east of Ukraine. Moscow tycoons move assets from West to Far East
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 11, 2014
The clash between Russia and the West over the Ukraine crisis is heating up militarily, economically and verbally in the countdown to the Crimean referendum on secession on Sunday March 16. Tuesday, March 11, Russia launched its biggest military exercise in 20 years. It encompasses command elements, rapid deployment forces and paratroops and takes place in western Russia not far from the Ukraine border. As the West started working on sanctions, debkafile reports that tycoons close to President Putin shifted assets to the Far East two months ago.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 7, 2014
Netanyahu persuaded Obama to back Israel’s raid on an Iranian missile ship to improve his soft image and possibly deter Putin from further military action in Ukraine.
DEBKAfile Special Report February 28, 2014
Thirteen giant Ilyushin-76 air transports (NATO codenamed IL-76 Candid) flew into the Crimea Friday night, Feb. 28, and landed some 2,000 fresh Russian troops at a military airfield near Sebastopol. debkafile’s military sources report the new intake belonged to the Russian Rapid Intervention Force. They arrived as the UN Security Council in New York discussed the Kiev government’s protest against the Russian military invasion of Ukraine. Armed Russian troops earlier took control of the runways of Crimea’s two main airports at Simferopol and Sevastopol.
Yanukovych refuses to resign - and goes missing in E. Ukraine. Tymoshenko seizes opposition center stage in Kiev
DEBKAfile Special Report February 22, 2014
Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych went on the air Saturday, Feb. 22, to say he has no plans to resign. From Kharkiv, he accused ”armed extremists and gangsters” of staging a coup comparable to the Nazi putsch in Berlin of 1933. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called on the German, French and Polish foreign ministers to step in and take responsibility for the deal they helped the rivals forge Friday, warning that Ukrainian sovereignty was threatened. The crisis is falling into the lines of a split between opposition Kiev and pro-Yanukovych Kharkiv.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 31, 2014
“The biggest diplomatic fraud in a decade" was how one Syria watcher called Geneva-2 which was staged as an exercise in misdirection to conceal the real conference in Bern with Iran at center stage.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 20, 2013
The post-Geneva elation has faded into pessimism and skepticism in Washington and Tehran where the hardline opposition threatens to extinguish nuclear diplomacy.
DEBKAfile Special Report November 24, 2013
After all-night talks, a first-step nuclear deal was struck before dawn Sunday, Nov. 24, in Geneva between Iran and the six powers. It was announced by President Barack Obama and confirmed by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Obama said key aspects of Iran’s nuclear program will be rolled back for limited sanctions relief. The US president said he understood the concerns of Israel and the Persian Gulf nations. He would closely follow Iran’s compliance and as commander-in-chief of US armed forces maintain the option for military action.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 23, 2013
After four days of haggling the six-power nuclear talks with Iran were still hanging in the balance as even John Kerry and Sergey Lavrov failed to bridge the gaps.