DEBKAfile DEBKA Weekly March 15, 2011
What led the Saudi-led GCC army units to jump unhesitatingly into Bahrain while the US and Europe dithered over Libya? Tehran won't take this lying down. In its latest issue out Friday, DEBKA-Net-Weekly outlines the potential military showdown between Iran and Saudi Arabia, explores US-Israeli intelligence blindness on Egypt, and reveals how the Libyan conflict is enriching both sides - Muammar Qaddafi and his opponents – as well as global arms traffickers.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 15, 2011
The Saudi force that went into Bahrain Monday, March 14, along with UAE and Kuwaiti units, to stabilize the royal regime is larger than reported, consisting of a National Guard brigade, a mechanized brigade of the Saudi army and a tank battalion – altogether 3,500 men. Until recently close American allies, the two Gulf rulers flouted President Obama's policy of supporting popular uprisings, encouraged by Qaddafi gaining the upper hand against Libya's rebels and Washington's constraints against military intervention.
DEBKAfile Special Report March 10, 2011
An annual intelligence report to Congress has dropped language stating that Iran's nuclear weapons ambitions are a future option and speaks in terms of the present, indicating a radical switch in US policy on Iran. As rocketing oil prices triggered by Arab uprisings wiped out the sanctions damage to Iran, Washington confirmed the worst Saudi and Israeli suspicions that Barack Obama had come to terms with a nuclear-armed Iran, after the US long restrained Israel from nipping this menace in the bud.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 7, 2011
Saudi protesters tried to grab limelight of Middle East by bringing forward its Day of Rage demos by four days to Monday, March 7. However, the organizers failed. debkafile's sources report exclusively that they had planned to start the demonstrations against the Saudi throne in the western and southern regions Monday. This was to have build up to a powerful climax in Riyadh and across the kingdom Friday and execute the scenario most feared by the Saudi throne: a mainstream-Shiite protest merger.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report March 4, 2011
As protesters prepare for Saudi Arabia's Day of Rage on March 11, fears grow across the Arab Gulf that the fall of Saudi King Abdullah will start a chain reaction against the emirs too and rock the world's oil markets.
DEBKAfile Special Report March 3, 2011
Ahead of the first Day of Anger planned in Saudi Arabia for March 11, a senior Iranian figure close to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warned Riyadh Wednesday, March 2, against launching preventive security measures against, or cracking down on, the kingdom's two million Shiites who live and work in the oil regions of the east. In Washington, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton accused Iran of using its Lebanese surrogate Hizballah to shape events in the Arab world.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 26, 2011
Iraq's biggest oil refinery at Baiji, 180 kilometers north of Baghdad, was blown up early Saturday, Feb. 26, by an Al Qaeda cell activated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Al Qods Brigades, debkafile's Middle East sources report. Tehran is using the Middle East turbulence to generate fuel shortages in Iraq and boost oil prices worldwide. Thursday night saw the first signs of unrest in Saudi Arabia with demonstrations by young people and by Shiites living and working in the kingdom's eastern oil regions..
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 25, 2011
King Abdullah returned home with a sackful of economic benefits but not enough political reforms to avert the Day of Anger called for March 13. Gunning for the royal house are the young and jobless and the oppressed Shiites.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 16, 2011
Twenty-four hours after Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak said the Egyptian upheaval had no military connotations for Israel, the Iranian frigate Alvand and cruiser Kharg transited the Suez Canal on their way to Syria. Wednesday night, Feb. 16, their passage was termed "a provocation" by Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman. In Beirut, Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah said he was looking forward to Israel going to war on Lebanon because then his men would capture Galilee.
DEBKAfile Special Report February 16, 2011
After anti-government protesters defied Bahraini security forces' efforts to dislodge them from Manama's main square, Sheikh Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalifa Wednesday, Feb. 16, asked for Saudi help, debkafile reveals. Riyadh has meanwhile stepped up security in the oil-rich Shiite regions of eastern Saudi Arabia. Jordan is confronted with the first outbreaks of Bedouin disaffection with the crown, Syria has geared up for Friday's Day of Anger and Libyan police fired tear gas and rubber bullets against first protesters in Benghazi.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 21, 2011
The high jobless rate among educated young Saudis is the greatest peril to the throne. The class most likely to cause trouble is that of young educated Saudis who are bitterly frustrated by the dearth of jobs for high school and university graduates.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 9, 2010
Saudi Arabia believes it now has the jump on Iran's nuclear designs by acquiring two Pakistan nuclear weapons which are held ready for delivery to the kingdom at a Pakistani nuclear base. This initiative represents the victory of the hawks in the Saudi royal house and encounters strong disapproval in Washington.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 1, 2010
Riyadh has signaled its intention for the secret Saudi-Israeli meetings on Iran taking place for more than a year to continue after the changing of the guard at the Mossad, debkafile's intelligence sources reveal. This message Tamir Pardo found on his desk when he took over from Meir Dagan this week as head of Israel's external spy agency. It means that, regardless of WikiLeaks disclosures, the Saudis stand by their conviction that Iran's nuclear program must be destroyed.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 19, 2010
King Abdullah is ill; Sultan who is next in line to the throne is dying of cancer. The thousands of princes are caught up in a succession race that may rejuvenate the gerontocracy.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 25, 2010
In a sudden about-face, the Saudis Monday, Oct. 25, urged Lebanon's pro-Western Prime Minister Saad Hariri to step down without delay and make way for an administration dominated by pro-Syrian ministers and Hizballah. King Abdullah, according to debkafile's Middle East and Beirut sources, sees no other way of saving Lebanon from tipping over into bloody strife over Hizballah's demand to disband the international tribunal probing the 2005 murder of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 22, 2010
Egypt and Saudi Arabia secretly carried out their first ever joint exercise this week with the participation of their special operations, marine, armored, missile, air and naval forces, debkafile's military sources reveal. Exercise Tabuk-2 was programmed to repulse a potential Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia by taking the battle over to Islamic Republican territory. It took place in Egypt's northern desert abutting the Mediterranean Sea where conditions resemble the eastern Saudi Arabian Persian Gulf coast.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 15, 2010
Riyadh fears the Obama administration's neglect is allowing Iran to march across the Sunni Arab Middle East unopposed, with Lebanon, Sudan and Iraq falling under Shiite sway and civil wars impending.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 23, 2010
At a secret meeting in Jeddah, top US and Saudi officials discussed a plan to airlift al Qaeda out of Afghanistan in order to free Taliban leader Mullah Omar to negotiate an end to the war and partial restoration of Taliban rule.
For now, there is no sign that Taliban wants any part of it.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 26, 2010
The phone call between Saudi King Abdullah and President Barack Obama ended in a falling-out on almost all US Middle East policies. Abudllah sees Obama as blinding hiself to an Iranian-Russian trap.