The Middle East Quartet meeting in Washington voices deep concern at escalating Palestinian violence<br/>
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 5, 2007
US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice argued at the Friday meeting that the violence should not delay work towards an Israeli-Palestinian peace deal that would lead to a Palestinian state. This initiative she hopes to bring forward in another Middle East visit later this month.
debkafile, in an Exclusive Analysis below, examines the situation the US secretary of state can expect to find: an irreconcilable Palestinian civil war tearing the Gaza Strip apart and which Washington's men on the ground lack the leadership to resolve.
<span class="debka">debka</span><span class="file">file</span> Exclusive: Fingerprints of Palestinian Jihad Islami terrorist ace Muhamed al Hindi on Eilat suicide bombing
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 3, 2007
debkafile's military sources disclose that the Jihad Islami leader returned to the Gaza Strip on Jan 19 after a six-month absence in Damascus, Beirut and Tehran, during which his Syrian and Iranian masters appointed him chief of the organization in place of Abdallah Ramadan Shelah.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 2, 2007
The latest truce in the escalating Palestinian warfare broke down almost as soon as it was declared Friday night, Feb. 2. The Fatah delegation to talks with Hamas in Gaza City on a mechanism for enforcing the ceasefire came under attack as its convoy drove away from the meeting. Earlier, two Palestinians were killed shortly after Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) agreed on a ceasefire with his rival, Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal.
At this point, Hamas has the upper hand against a foe led by the former Gaza Strip strongman, ex-Palestinian minister and Abbas ally, Muhammad Dahlan. He has pretty well commandeered the Fatah side of the conflict, turning it into a personal crusade to recover his private power base in the territory. If he attains that objective, which is doubtful at the moment, his next allegiance is anyone's guess.
Even now, he is not choosy about the gangs in his pay, who tend to be easily bought and sold.
<span class="debka">debka</span><span class="file">file</span> Reports: First Eilat suicide bombing killing 3 Israelis feared start of deadly wave funded from Tehran and Damascus
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 2, 2007
The bomber, Mohamed Faisal al-Siksik, 21, from Gaza, blew himself up in a bakery in the Red Sea resort of Eilat Monday, Jan. 29, killing the two proprietors and a worker.This was the first such attack the holiday paradise has ever experienced. debkafile's counter-terror sources report that the next wave of suicide attacks is expected to be mounted from Gaza and Sinai by the Palestinian Jihad Islami in conjunction with local al Qaeda cells with funding from Tehran and Damascus.
<span class="debka">debka</span><span class="file">file</span>'s sources: Without co-opting Iran and Damascus, Saudi King Abdullah's mediation of violent Fatah-Hamas feud unlikely to succeed
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 30, 2007
Monday, three Palestinians were killed in the S. Gazan town of Khan Younes and reciprocal abductions continued. The death toll in four days of infighting has risen to 33.
Jordan denies the Palestinian suicide bomber who murdered three Israelis in Eilat Monday came from the kingdom<br/>
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 30, 2007
The Palestinian Jihad Islami made this claim to cover his tracks through Sinai and the group's links with al Qaeda. Israeli internal security minister Avi Dichter said the bomber's route had been established as running from the Gaza Strip via Sinai to Eilat.
The White House condemns suicide bombing attack which killed 3 Israelis in Eilat Monday and holds the Palestinian Authority responsible for prevention
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 30, 2007
The White House spokesman Tony Snow said: "Failure to act against terrorists will affect relations between the Palestinian Authority and the international community and undermine the aspirations of the Palestinian people for a state of their own."
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 2, 2006
The artificial efforts to keep the lid on violence while US president George W. Bush was in the region Wednesday and Thursday, Nov. 29-30 for talks on Iraq, were abandoned as soon as he boarded Air Force One for Washington. This was predicted by Jordan's King Abdullah when he warned that three civil wars were on the point of erupting in the Middle East.
Saturday, Dec. 2, Mahmoud Abbas updated the PLO Executive Committee in Ramallah on the collapse of his unity talks with Hamas, after advising US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice of the stalemate in Jericho Friday, Dec. 1.
Fatah spokesman Azzam al Ahmad came out and called the Hamas prime minister Ismail Haniya to step down or else Abu Mazen would have to call an early election to solve the constitutional crisis. Ismail Radwan of Hamas shot back that this kind of talk inflamed relations and would treated as a coup threat.
Fatah was blowing in the wind. It lacks both the popular and parliamentary numbers to bring about an early poll.
The threat is out in the open: If Abu Mazen tries to dismiss the Hamas cabinet and call a new election, Hamas will resume its Qassam missile war against Israel, calibrating the level of fire to the state of affairs on the internal Palestinian front.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 27, 2006
Israel's five-day anti-missile campaign was curtailed Sunday, Nov. 26 by a ceasefire announced by the Palestinians. But it was long enough to provide Israeli forces with the foretaste of a Palestinian fighting force far different from the bands of terrorists the IDF has faced for the past six years in the Gaza Strip and West Bank.
The fingerprints were clearly apparent of the 120 Syrian and Hizballah officers whose arrival in the Gaza in the weeks after the Lebanon War was revealed by debkafile. They came in quite openly through Cairo international airport without demur from Egyptian officials.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 22, 2006
debkafile's military sources disclose that Israel's security cabinet decided Wednesday, Nov. 22, that there is no option but to launch a major offensive against Hamas and its terrorist allies in the Gaza Strip - both to pre-empt their war build-up and reduce Qassam missile attacks, which climbed to 80 in the last 10 days. The date remains to be set.
The prime minister was finally convinced that the time for foot-dragging was over by intelligence data which showed Hamas hectically engaged in constructing state of the art fortifications for withstanding deep incursions into the Gaza Strip. They are assisted by dozens of military advisers pouring in from Syria and Lebanon.
As Palestinian missile attacks on the Israeli population proliferate, Sderot's distress becomes intolerable and the popular clamor rises to curb the menace, the IDF has switched its counter-missile tactics in the Gaza Strip. Instead of the air force, special ground forces backed by Shin Bet units are spearheading strikes which target top Hamas missile commanders.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 16, 2006
debkafile's military experts dispute the common Israeli government assertion that there is no way to stop the Qassam offensive against Sderot. They offer two solutions which do not entail reoccupying the entire Gaza Strip or Beit Hanoun, or using artillery to bombard civilian locations.
One is the deployment of small commando units across the Egyptian border in northern Sinai. These units would pre-empt the smuggling by attacking the convoys of weapons and funds and blowing them up before they reach the Gaza border.
The same tactic is applicable to the Gaza Strip.
Swarms of Israeli commando units should fill the areas from which the Qassam missiles are fired, including orchards. Ambushes at every corner will deter the missile crews and make them afraid of being liquidated on their way to launchings. This tactic was tried only once before in a location outside Beit Lahiya, next door to Beit Hanoun. It caused heavy casualties among the Palestinian gunmen and the Qassam teams gave this location a wide berth for some time.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 7, 2006
"Operation Autumn Clouds" wound down early Tuesday, 7 Nov. after Israeli forces occupied the northern Gazan town of Beit Hanoun for six days, for the loss of an Israeli soldier, 1st Sgt Kiril Golanshin, 21, from Shekef. Most of the 58 Palestinians killed were armed Hamas adherents.
In Beit Hanoun, the Givaty Armored Infantry Brigade and smaller units demonstrated a new combat method which Israeli special forces first tested in the Aug.1 raid on Baalbek during the Lebanon War, adding improvements for the Gaza operation. Police anti-terror squads joined the operation for practice.
The tactic consists essentially of select groups of elite fighters swooping at speed on defined populated urban areas for pinpointed missions. This method is part of the tradition of the select IDF commando units called Sayarot. In Gaza, Givaty applied the same tactic to larger units of up to brigade and battalion strength.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 13, 2006
The military pacts Palestinian Hamas interior minister Said Siyam signed with his Iranian counterpart Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi in Tehran on Oct. 12 are designed to transform Hamas' military wing, the Ezz e-Din al Qassam, into a crack operational arm of the Iran's Revolutionary Guards, and Gaza into a second Lebanon.
debkafile's Iranian sources report Tehran has committed to training Hamas' rapid deployment force of 6,500 men in Hizballah combat tactics, with the accent on missiles, especially the anti-tank variety which were used with devastating effect against Israeli tanks in the Lebanon War.
The Hamas military delegation flew from Cairo to Dubai and on to Tehran. Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and intelligence chief, Gen. Omar Suleiman, were apprised of the Hamas leaders' trip and the military accords they were to sign, but did nothing to detain the travelers.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 12, 2006
Mahmoud Abbas, who carries the formal title of President of the Palestinian Authority, is pushing hard for a government coalition between his own Fatah and the ruling Hamas. The incentive for Hamas' prime minister Ismail Haniyeh is the prospect of an escape from the international boycott and aid embargo dogging his government. But extremist supreme leader Khaled Meshaal who is based in Damascus is unlikely to let him run very far.
Abu Mazen knows the unity government is a non-starter because it would carry with it only a small group of Hamas leaders and leave the Islamist movement fatally split. The military arm ruled by Meshaal, Damascus and Tehran would soon eliminate Haniyeh as a renegade.
But when he looks around him, Abbas sees no reason why he too should not try and hawk non-existent merchandize like everyone else.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 30, 2006
Israel's intelligence chiefs have formed a new lobby to put their warnings in the public domain when they see the Olmert government failing to properly address grave security threats to the country.
The first to speak out was the Shin Bet director, Yuval Diskin.
He represented the heads of AMAN-military intelligence and the Mosad when he revealed to the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee Tuesday, Aug. 29, that Palestinian terrorists, notably Hamas, were employing Hizballah's Lebanon tactics and building a Katyusha deployment, bunker network and anti-tank missile arsenal in the Gaza Strip. The northern West Bank, he said, had been taken over by Hizballah agents and radical Jihad Islami terrorists since its evacuation by Israel at the same time as the Gaza Strip last summer.
debkafile's intelligence sources reveal: Israel's security chiefs have learned of a decision by Hizballah to keep its head down in S. Lebanon for the time being, while secretly opening two new anti-Israel fronts in the Gaza Strip and northern West Bank. This transposition of Hizballah's war against Israel to the Palestinian arena has begun to materialize.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 27, 2006
On the face of it, conversion to Islam would appear to provide a painless escape device for any hostage who happens to fall into fundamentalist terrorist hands. After all, once free, the hostage can always revert to his real faith or non-faith. It is hard to blame the two Fox News journalists, the American Steve Centanni, 60, and the New Zealander, Olaf Wiig, 36, for taking that path on to buy their way out of an uncertain fate at the hands of Palestinian terrorists - especially as they later reported they were forced to make the gesture at gunpoint.
And, indeed the two journalists were released from 13 days of captivity in Gaza three hours after announcing their conversion on a new videotape released by the kidnappers in Gaza.
Various Palestinian middlemen were used by British agents at the request of the US to bring the Fox journalists home. They worked out a convoluted deal which entailed their public conversion to Islam, an anti-American harangue on air and a six-figure cash ransom paid under the table to their kidnapper, the Palestinian warlord Zakaria Dughmush.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 11, 2006
Maj.-Gen (Ret) Giora Eiland traced the breakdown which allowed a Hamas-led squad overrun an Israeli army post on the Israeli side of the southern Gaza border, kill two soldiers and snatch Corporal Gideon Shalit on June 25, to an "operational" breakdown. Most damningly, Eilat affirmed that the corporal's abduction could have been aborted.
At the same time, General Eiland omitted to asked the three searching questions that might have laid bare the root-causes of the fiasco at Kerem Shalom:
1. Was this a one-time slip-up or a part of a long-running string of lapses?
2. Was it the natural, preordained consequence of the operational directives coming down from the prime minister, the defense minister via IDF chiefs?
3. The Eiland probe should have examined the strategic concepts guiding Israel's top commanders before and after the fall of the Kerem Shalom post.
The scales have fallen from many Israeli eyes in the wake of the Gilead Shalit disaster. People have begun asking hard questions, such as how did Hamas come to take over Palestinian government in the first place. And why is Hamas being permitted to terrorize southern Israeli with Qassam missiles after the Gaza Strip was handed over lock, stock and barrel to full Palestinian control.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 8, 2006
Operation Oaks of Bashan has done nothing to help bring Corporal Gilead Shalit home, 12 days after a Hamas-led assault team attacked an Israeli army post, killed two of his comrades and kidnapped him. The Israeli incursion has also not made enough headway in purging Palestinian gunmen or locating the tunnels favored by Palestinian terrorists for surprise attacks and smuggling.
However, Israeli forces have not limited their offensive to incursions above ground. Special forces are operating deep behind enemy lines.Tuesday, July 4, for instance, an Israeli ambush south of Gaza City targeted and killed Thayasar Roei, liaison officer between Palestinian national security forces and Hamas.
Thursday and Friday, several second-level Hamas operatives were taken from their homes. Hamas may not take its punishment without striking back, possibly by mounting more surprise attacks like the one that captured Gilead Shalit and took Israel unawares on June 25. Israel may also have surprises up its sleeve.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 4, 2006
Israeli and Hamas leaders have been hurling shrill threats right and left since three Palestinian terrorist groups slapped down a deadline to meet their demands over the Israeli hostage, Corp. Gilead Shalit. But the loudest effect is generated by the Bush administration's silence.
In Moscow, Israeli foreign minister Tzipi Livni talked to Russian president Vladimir Putin, then warned that the Gilead Shalit hostage affair could lead to a regional war escalation. Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, after his mediation bid collapsed, hurried over to Saudi Arabia for an appeal to King Abdullah to use his influence with Assad - not Hamas - to defuse the situation before it hurtles out of control.
But debkafile's Middle East and military sources calculate that none of the recipients of these appeals is much scared about the prospect of a general Middle East flare-up.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 2, 2006
The ball landed squarely in the Israeli court Saturday night, July 1, after Cairo admitted its bid to negotiate an end to the Gideon Shalit hostage crisis had ended in fiasco six days after his capture. The IDF, whose armored forces are standing 3 km inside the southern Gaza Strip since Wednesday, June 28, and camped on the fringes of its northern sector, are awaiting their next orders. It is up to prime minister Ehud Olmert to tell the troops how to complete their incursion of the territory and approach their confrontation with Hamas.
He is holding emergency conferences with security and military chiefs Saturday night on whether to approach the inevitable clash at once, or in stages; incrementally, or by a blitz operation entailing the reoccupation of all or most of the Gaza Strip.
Casualties on both sides are unavoidable.
debkafile's sources disclose that Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak and his aides derailed their own mediation effort out of hubris, while Mahmoud Abbas is picking up the pieces in the hope of maneuvering Israel into doing his dirty work and toppling the Hamas regime.