DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis March 7, 2015
US and Israeli intelligence agencies sharply disagree on the time Iran needs for breakout to a bomb. The Americans cite one year between a decision by Tehran to cross from nuclear threshold to nuclear bomb – enough time for preventive action; the Israelis say much less and, anyway, US and Israeli can’t be sure to catch the Iranians at it in time to stop its advance to a nuclear weapon. Saudi Arabia, fellow Gulf States and Egypt are no more convinced than Israel that the one-year timeline is realistic.
DEBKAfile Special Report March 4, 2015
Barack Obama’s Iran policy, spectacularly challenged by Binyamin Netanyahu in his Congress speech Tuesday, March 3, is manifested 10,000 kilometers from Washington, in the Iranian-led Iraqi battle for Tikrit. Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff commented that day that the “Tikrit campaign… the most overt conduct of Iranian support …could turn out to be a positive thing.” debkafile: This US-Iranian partnership, which is mirrored in Syria, is alarming Israeli military chiefs because it brings the Iranian peril closer than ever before.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 17, 2015
The Iranian-backed “Operation Quneitra Martyrs” for the capture of the Golan brings Afghan and Pakistani Shiite fighters to an Israeli border for the first time, debkafile reveals that 2,000 of these fighters have joined an equal number of Hizballah troops, who are spearheading a march on the Golan from southern Syria. They were recruited from the Hazara and Zaynubian militias established by Tehran. After polishing their combat skills and learning to fight as an integrated force, Iran plans to deploy them in Lebanon to augment Hizballah’s war on Israel.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 9, 2015
Egyptian and Israeli intelligence have discovered the former Ansar Bait al-Maqdis - reborn as the Islamic State’s operational arm in Sinai – well into advanced preparations for a large-scale terrorist offensive targeting Israel forces manning the Egyptian frontier, along with another multiple assault on Egyptian targets in Sinai, the Suez and Cairo. debkafile: Elated by the success of their Jan. 29 multiple attacks, which left at least 40 Egyptians dead and more than 100 injured, the Islamist group is determined to keep going. Israeli forces are well prepared.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 5, 2015
ISIS tacticians figured that the horrific murder of the Jordanian pilot would drum up anti-US sentiment and popular Arab calls to quit the US-led coalition.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 5, 2015
Iran is putting the first interlocking pieces in place for its Shiite Crescent empire in Anbar, Iraq and the Qalamoun Mountains of western Syria. Israel is the fly in the Syrian ointment.
DEBKAfile Special Report February 4, 2015
At dawn Wednesday, Feb. 4, Jordan executed the Iraqi woman terrorist Sajida al-Rishawi, who was offered to ISIS to save the life of the pilot Lt. Mu’ath al Kassasbeh, along with another al Qaeda terrorist Ziad Karbouli. Since the Islamic State released the video showing the young pilot burned alive in a cage, the Jordanian army and security forces have been on full-scale alert in case ISIS hits back at the executions by activating its many sleeper cells for strikes in Jordanian cities. debkafile: This would bring the jihadist threat up to Israel’s eastern border.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 19, 2014
The red alert for the incoming rocket from Gaza which hit the Eshkol District Friday morning Dec.19, followed dull thumps in parts of Beersheba Thursday. debkafile: They were an omen of Hamas’ return to Tehran’s sway. Their reconciliation accord provides for Hamas to revive low-key rocket fire against Israel while coordinating all its operations with Iran. Hamas will pretend “anonymous groups” are responsible. Israel is onto this turn of events but is keeping quiet for now. But Hamas celebrated with an unheard-of military parade on Temple Mount, Jerusalem.
Which slogan will carry Israel’s election? Pledges of affordable housing or security against terror?
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis December 12, 2014
Five major blocs are emerging at the outset of Israel’s election campaign: right, left, center, religious and Arab. Yitzhak Herzog of Labor promises to form the next government after hitching up with former Justice Minister Tzipi Livni of Hatnuah. But private party polls place the couple only third or fourth in the coming election. The only fresh face in the race is Moshe Kahlan, late of Likud, who this week established his Kulanu (All of Us) party. The ultra-religious Shas is about to split with Ellie Yishay quitting to form a new religious party.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 10, 2014
A group of at least ten ISIS operations and intelligence officers, led by a senior commander, has arrived in Sinai and taken charge of the local Ansar Beit al-Maqdas jihadis, thereby opening up a dangerous new front against Egypt and Israel, in proximity to the Suez Canal, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank, debkafile reports. Since Ansar pledged allegiance to IS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdad considers Sinai a province of his Islamic caliphate. His forward command in Sinai is directed to move from targeting Egypt to fighting the “Egyptian-Zionist alliance.”
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 2, 2014
All the US and Western strike and surveillance flights against ISIS in Syria and Iraq reach their targets through Israeli and Jordanian airspace, US, European and civilian monitors of global air force movements report. This is confirmed by detailed maps released by bodies tracking the movements of military strike and refueling craft across the world. One of two corridors (see attached map) runs north of Tel Aviv through Jordan to Iraq and the second through Golan to Syria. Israel and Jordan are revealed as partners in the US-led air offensive against ISIS.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis September 9, 2014
A “Western diplomat” reported Monday, Sept. 8, that “Israel has provided satellite imagery…in support of the US-led aerial campaign against the Islamic State in Iraq.” This information was “shared by Washington with Arab and Turkish allies after being “scrubbed of evidence of its Israeli origin.” debkafile: This tall tale is clearly part of a deep US game - to break up the Saudi-Egyptian-UAE bloc which backed Israel’s Gaza operation, and draw Arab allies into the Obama coalition for fighting the Islamic State, offering the bait of Israeli intelligence available only through Washington.
Syria forces ranged for major counteroffensive to dislodge rebels from Quneitra. High tension on Golan
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 3, 2014
Soldiers of the Syrian army’s 7th Division and tanks were poised Wednesday, Sept. 3 for an imminent all-out offensive against rebels holding parts of Quneitra, debkafile reports. The Syrians may move their tanks into the battle zone, in defiance of Israel’s caution via the UN that they would be infringing ceasefire agreements and incur IDF counteraction. Damascus counts on Israel being deterred from striking Syrian forces fighting Syrian Islamists after the wave of revulsion from the beheading of the Jewish American journalist Steven Sotloff by Iraqi Islamists.
Egyptian troops hunt Hamas, Islamic Jihad rocket gangs loose in Sinai. Palestinians stall on truce talks
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 1, 2014
The Egyptian military are scouring northern and central Sinai for Hamas and Islamic Jihad rocket squads and the launching sites they have buried beneath the desert surface, according to debkafile’s exclusive sources. They turn out to have established an elaborate rocket-launching network in Sinai in the week before the Aug. 26 ceasefire in Gaza - both as a second front against Israel, and as a lever, in case the Cairo negotiations later this month failed to meet their terms for a deal. But those talks are stalled anyway by furious Palestinian inter-faction feuding.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis August 28, 2014
The battle for Quneitra has no real military importance for the Syrian conflict at large, says debkafile. The Syrian army, helped by Iran and Hizballah, is winning and the rebel side crumbling. However, integrated in the rebel contingents fighting for Quneitra, with US, Israeli and Jordanian backing, are Al Qaeda’s Nusra Front fighters and its Sinai arm, Ansar Beit Al-Madis, which works hand in glove with Israel’s foe, the Palestinian Hamas. When a black Al Qaeda flag flies over Quneitra 200 m from its Golan border, Israel will face a new dilemma.
Israel-Hamas truce deal in effect from Tuesday 7 p.m. Heavy Palestinian barrage last minute kills 2 Israelis
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis August 26, 2014
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Egyptian President Abdel-Fatteh El-Sisi were able to bring Hamas leaders in the Gaza Strip to accept an unlimited ceasefire in hostilities in effect from 7 p.m. Tuesday, Aug. 26, based on the 2012 deal. Netanyahu did not ask for his ministers’ endorsement, knowing he did not have majority support in the cabinet. Hamas violated all eleven agreed truces during during the 50-day Gaza conflict. Up to the last minute, Hamas kept up heavy rocket and mortar fire, causing two Israeli deaths and seven injured in the Eshkol District.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis August 24, 2014
Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon said Sunday, Aug. 24 that Operation Defensive Edge would end “only when quiet returns to southern Israel. Till then, we shall continue to hammer Hamas - for now by air.” debkafile:
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 19, 2014
debkafile’s intelligence sources disclose that the Egyptian-brokered draft deal Israeli and Hamas delegates inked in Cairo Monday night, Aug. 18, said to contain, in return for a Hamas commitment to withhold rocket fire on the Israeli population, a number of major Israeli waivers. The draft is subject to endorsement by the Israeli security cabinet, which does not convene until Tuesday. They may entail lifting the siege on the Gaza Strip by permission to establish deep sea and air ports - before Hamas is made to disarm, and also talks on releasing prisoners.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 14, 2014
The newly elected Recep Tayyip Erdogan, bolstered by a US arms deal, has Israel’s leaders preparing for a potential Turkish air or sea attack.
DEBKAfile Special Report August 8, 2014
Hours before the 72-hour Gaza ceasefire was due to expire Friday morning, Aug. 8, the Palestinian Hamas’ military wing slapped down an ultimatum before Israel: Either allow the Gaza Strip to have an open seaport – which would be tantamount to lifting the Gaza blockade - or prepare for a long and brutal war of attrition with thousands of fatalities. Abu Obeida, spokesman of Hamas’ military wing, Ezz e-Din Al-Qassam, announced that their new rockets with large warheads would strike Ben Gurion airport and cut Israel off from its air transport links.