DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 16, 2014
Israel’s strategists have found a new cause for disquiet. On top of concern over the concentration of al Qaeda fighting strength around its borders, they are beginning to worry about Russian President Vladimir Putin capitalizing on America’s withdrawal from the Middle East, by means of military pacts with Syrian President Bashar Assad and Egypt's Gen. Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi. Since Egypt’s economic woes are incurable, El-Sisi plans to build a strong regime with Russian and Saudi support and lead a pan-Arab nationalist movement – potentially versus Israel.
Iran spreads its war wings: Hizballah deepens role in Syria. Israel, Syria, Lebanon “regions of conflict”
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report February 10, 2014
In a policy makeover, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has decided to seal off in a separate policy compartment Iran’s nuclear diplomatic tactics for obtaining sanctions relief - and for dominating the Syrian war negotiations resuming in Geneva, Monday, Feb. 10 - and place Iran’s regional goals in another box. Alongside diplomacy, Al Qods Brigades chief Qassem Soleimani will execute Iran’s expanded regional interventions. Hizballah is already deepening its role in the Syrian civil war, while Lebanon, Syria and Israel are targeted by Tehran as “areas of conflict.”
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis February 2, 2014
Secretary of State John Kerry freely used scare tactics such as a fresh Palestinian “intifada,’ and international boycotts and isolation, to cow Israel into signing on the dotted line of the framework accord he proposes to submit to Israel and the Palestinians. debkafile: Such tactics tend to backfire as self-fulfilling prophecies - witness proliferating Palestinian terror attacks and the latest Scandinavian boycott of Israel's three largest banks for the “crime” of business on the West Bank. A small spark may easily ignite a major bonfire in this overheated climate.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 24, 2014
The delegation to Geneva 2 representing Bashar Assad holds most of the levers and will make sure that there is no resolution suggesting his removal. Iran denies accepting any dismantling of its nuclear infrastructure, and Kerry misses a visit to Israel and the Palestinians.
DEBKAfile Special Report January 22, 2014
The Shin Bet disclosed Wednesday, Jan. 22, that three Palestinians in custody were recruited by al Qaeda for suicide operations planned by Ayman Zuwahiri for execution with five North Caucasian terrorists arriving on fake Russian passports. The targets were the US Embassy in Tel Aviv, the Jerusalem Convention Center and Jerusalem-Maaleh Adummim buses. debkafile: It was the first time Zuwahiri took a personal hand in setting up attacks inside Israel with mixed teams from the Caucasus, the Gaza Strip, Syria and local Palestinians.
DEBKAfile Special Report January 13, 2014
The US and Iran agree to treat Tehran’s regional policies as separate from nuclear diplomacy to forestall obstacles which such opponents as Saudi Arabia and Israel may raise. Monday, Jan. 14, senior US sources admitted: “The US and Iran have sought to insulate the nuclear negotiations from the tensions over Iran’s regional policies.” On the Syrian issue, governments near and far will attend Geneva 2, but Israel is not invited, although events in next-door Syria and Lebanon directly impinge on its security. Sharon would not have taken this snub lying down.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report January 9, 2014
Tehran is openly installing fast IR-2m centrifuges designed to speed uranium enrichment, and preparing even faster machines, claiming they were covered by the US-led five power recognition of Iran’s right to nuclear enrichment under the November, 2013 Geneva pact. debkafile: A follow-up meeting takes place Thursday, Nov. 9, in the face of the Iranian lawmaker Muhammad Nabavian’s revelation that Tehran can produce a bomb within two weeks - and a complete nuclear arsenal with the help of the new centrifuges. He named Israel as its target.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 26, 2013
The newest Palestinian terrorist weapon is an Iranian copy of the Austrian single-shot Steyr 50 caliber assassin’s rifle. It was used by a trained sniper to murder Saleh Abu-Tayyel Tuesday on Dec. 24. The marksman belonged to the Hamas-commanded Popular Resistance Committees. He was assisted by a Jihad Islami scout who helped him position the 12.5 kilo, 1.37 m long rifle. IDF Master Sgt. Gal Koby, who was killed on Sept. 22 by a single shot in Hebron, may too have been the victim of a Palestinian sniper using a Steyr 50.
DEBKAfile Special Report December 22, 2013
A medium-sized bomb exploded on a Dan No. 240 bus in Bat Yam on the outskirts of Tel Aviv Monday, Dec. 22, in what the police believe is a fresh outbreak of Palestinian terrorist attacks on Israeli civilian transport. A passenger spotted an unattended bag and alerted the driver who pulled over, cleared the bus and called the police in time. A police sapper who tried to defuse the bomb slightly hurt his hand when it blew up. Police judge the incident to be terror-related for a multiple-casualty attack.
Obama threatens to cut off US support to South Sudan if violence continues, sends special envoy to Juba
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 22, 2013
From his holiday in Hawaii Saturday, Dec. 21, President Barack Obama threatened to withdraw the support of the US and other nations from South Sudan if the violence continued, after three US military planes were hit by ground fire on an evacuation mission over rebel-held Bor. Four Americans were injured, one critically. Obama held South Sudanese leaders responsible for protecting Americans. debkafile: The US warning applied also to the Israelis aiding South Sudan and trying to resolve the differences between the feuding President Saval Kiira and his ousted deputy Riek Machar.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 13, 2013
Al Qaeda pens its first operational blueprint for Israel’s destruction, planning to use its lack of strategic depth to attack the Jewish state from Syria and Iraq.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 11, 2013
The suspension of US-UK non-lethal military aid to the Syrian opposition in the north – ostensibly to keep it out of Islamist hands – is only part of the story. The aid will be put in the hands of the pro-American rebel forces deployed to man a new security zone the two powers are carving out in the south, as a barrier against al Qaeda’s encroachments on the Jordanian, Israeli, and Lebanese borders, as well as Damascus. Two war rooms in Irbid, Jordan will run the operation under a US general.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 6, 2013
Two US war rooms were necessary in view of various Obama commitments to different Middle East allies. The area marked out as US area of influence is designed also to impede al Qaeda’s advance.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 6, 2013
After failing to prevent Iran becoming a nuclear threshold state, Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu has practically run out of options.
DEBKAfile Special Report December 3, 2013
Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency “reveals” that Saudi Arabia and Israel’s Mossad are “co-conspiring to produce a computer worm more destructive than the Stuxnet malware to sabotage Iran’s nuclear program.” It claims that Saudi intelligence director Prince Bandar Bin Sultan and Israel’s Mossad chief Tamir Pardo met in Vienna to decide on the virus attack on Nov. 24, shortly after the six world powers signed their first interim nuclear agreement with Iran in Geneva, and that a week earlier, Prince Bandar visited Israel secretly with French President Francois Hollande.
DEBKAfile Special Report December 2, 2013
In New York and Tel Aviv, former CIA director Gen. Michael Haden and ex-chief of AMAN, Gen. (ret) Amos Yadlin, offered the same opinion. Both said Sunday, Dec. 1, that Iran has attained the status of a nuclear threshold state, able to build several nuclear bombs in a matter of weeks. By this diagnosis, they indicted their respective governments for failing to stop this happening. Hayden on the Geneva accord: “We need to negotiate hitting the delete button.” Yadlin: "Iran is a step before breakout to a bomb. This is unfortunate but true.”
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 28, 2013
The US is showering Iran with perks even before it takes the first step toward implementing its interim nuclear deal with the six powers.
DEBKAfile Special Report November 28, 2013
The three terrorists killed by Israeli forces in the south Hebron village Yata Tuesday, Nov. 26, belonged to the first al Qaeda cell to infiltrate the West Bank from Sinai, most likely through Jordan, debkafile reports. They came to establish a major new network for attacking Israel and the Palestinian Authority - hence the combined army, Shin Bet and special anti-terror force’s expeditious action to terminate the cell. It is feared they were the harbinger of more infiltrations by al Qaide forces embedded around Israel’s borders in Sinai, Gaza, Syria and Lebanon.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 8, 2013
Washington hopes by clinching a fast deal with Iran, albeit a partial and first step, to avert an Israeli strike and delay the transfer of Pakistani nukes paid for by Riyadh to Saudi Arabia.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 8, 2013
Turkish-Iranian intelligence cooperation has produced an operation against Syria rebel supplies through Turkey. Tehran wants to redirect Turkish exports from its Israeli route back to Syria, and use the Turkish route to promote Iranian products in Europe.