DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 8, 2011
Western and Israeli intelligence missed Iran's spectacular nuclear fast-forward by miscalculating its timelines. It now appears that by 2012, Tehran will have around four-to-six bombs or warheads in stock and have tested ICBMs for their delivery. Uranium enrichment will be raised to 60 percent by relocating the plants from Natanz to the hidden Fordo facility.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 8, 2011
American Jewish leaders visiting Jerusalem this summer are giving the Israeli prime minister all kinds of advice – some say quietly back Republican hopeful Jon Huntsman but both advise him to stay clear of the presidential race because the odds still back Barack Obama.
DEBKAfile DEBKA Weekly July 5, 2011
The latest DEBKA-Net-Weekly out Friday uncovered Iran's surreptitious leaps and bounds toward a home-made nuclear weapon. Tehran has not only executed four nuclear-capable missile tests, but actually constructed a nuclear warhead prototype.
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DEBKAfile Special Report July 4, 2011
The pipeline carrying Egyptian natural gas to Israel and Jordan via Sinai was blown up early Monday, July 4, for the third time in six months. All three attacks were carried out according to debkafile's military sources, by a special Hamas pipeline sabotage unit working with al Qaeda-allied Bedouin smugglers.This time, the Hamas retaliated for the stoppage of the international flotilla before it could set out to break the Israeli naval blockade on the Gaza Strip.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 4, 2011
The Palestinian Authority is broke. Prime Minister Salam Fayyad appealed to "donors and our Arab brothers" Sunday, June 3, for urgent assistance after being forced to halve civil servants' July wages. The US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia could save the PA from bankruptcy – in theory. But, debkafile reports, the Saudis prefer to channel cash to Jordan and Washington's bailout is conditional on Mahmoud Abbas dropping his unilateral UN initiative and going back to negotiations with Israel.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 2, 2011
The organizers of Freedom Flotilla II against Israel's naval blockade on Gaza – among them Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal's son-in-law Hamoud Tareq - never dreamed the stalling of their expedition would be served up as the founding step of the nascent pro-US Israel-Greek-Turkish alliance. If Mahmoud wants to jump aboard this grouping, he must drop his UN move for Palestinian recognition, so pre-empting the storm Binyamin Netanyahu's ill-wishers are counting on for ending his rule.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 30, 2011
debkafile offers exclusive details on the British Foreign Secretary William Hague's allegation Wednesday, June 29, that Iran has carried out secret tests of missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payload in breach of UN resolution 1929: Three of those tests, four in all, were carried out between October 2010 and February 2011and the fourth on Tuesday, June 28, in the course of the Prophet Mohammed war games currently in progress. Three tests by Sejjil and Shahab-3 Kadar were successful.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 29, 2011
British Foreign Secretary William Hague stated Wednesday, June 29: "Iran has been carrying out covert ballistic missile tests and rocket launches, including testing missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payload in contravention of UN resolution 1929." Hague was the first Western leader to confirm debkafile's disclosures in the past year. He spoke as American naval, air and marine forces built up in the Mediterranean, the Aden and Oman straits, the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 27, 2011
Iran's big war game was launched Monday, June 27 ahead of a Turkish operation against Syria's Assad regime anticipated by its military and Revolutionary Guards chiefs, with the unveiling of its first underground missile silo. debkafile reports Tehran expects the Turkish army to have US air and naval support in case of Iranian reprisals against them both. Israel moves an Iron Dome rocket interceptor battery to Haifa.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 26, 2011
Five years after the Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit was kidnapped by Hamas in a cross-border raid from Gaza, members of his family Saturday, June 25, chained themselves to the fence outside the Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's residence in desperate protest. debkafile: Their protest is misdirected to the wrong address: Even if Israel bowed to every Hamas demand, its leaders backed by Iran and Syria would set a new price as the pretext for holding on to this prime asset.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 25, 2011
As Turkey heads for a military showdown with Syria, Ankara has agreed to restore military and intelligence collaboration in the eastern Mediterranean with Israel, debkafile reports. The deal worked out between President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu also returns Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan to a role in Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy and gives him a chance to try and bring Hamas aboard. Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon finalized the details in secret talks in Ankara.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 24, 2011
Obama and Erdogan had divided up Arab Revolt missions between them, targeting another two Arab rulers, Muammar Qaddafi and Bashar Assad, for eventual eviction – first by diplomacy, then by force - when Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi jumped in with a demand for NATO to halt hostilities in Libya pronto.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 24, 2011
Prime Minister Netanyahu has dropped his long-time ally and partner-in-policymaking Defense Minister Ehud Barak and turned to hardline Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman as his only adviser. But essentially, Bibi has dispensed with a circle of advisers and taken over the solo lead in all defense affairs and important foreign relations.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 17, 2011
Lebanon has a new government headed by Najib Mikati, ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hizballah. Formed suddenly on June 13, the 30-minister lineup has earmarked an unprecedented 18 portfolios – including defense and interior – to Hizballah loyalists and pro-Syrian politicians. While fighting the uprising against his rule, Bashar Assad has recaptured Beirut. The appointment of friendly Fayez Ghosn as defense minister places the army at the service of Damascus and portends trouble on the Lebanese-Israeli border.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 17, 2011
A man has been arrested suspected of cutting the gas pipe and causing the huge explosion and fire which wrecked a four-story residential building on Independence Square in the Israeli seaside town of Netanya after midnight Thursday, June 16. Large teams of paramedics and fire fighters were called in and fought their way into the building amid a strong smell of gas. Four people were killed on the spot and another 96 injured – most with minor injuries.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 16, 2011
Assad's decision to bank on the army to extinguish the revolt against him is paying off. The US and the West could have starved him of funds for his crackdown by an embargo on Syrian oil experts – but refrained from doing so. In any case, the Syrian economy is about to crash
DEBKAfile Special Report June 13, 2011
Jerusalem insisted Monday that no Cairo notification had been received of the arrest of dual US-Israeli citizen Ilan Grapel as an alleged Israeli spy, while Washington is checking to see if any word came through. Western intelligence circles suggest Egypt may have preferred to "find" a Mossad spy even if they suspected him of working undercover for other Western organizations. debkafile: The US and Israel are seeking his quick release before agitation against an alleged fomenter of Muslim-Coptic strife makes this impossible.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 12, 2011
The first Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood delegation ever has been allowed to visit the Gaza Strip and meet Palestinian Hamas leaders. An unparalleled wave of anti-Israeli venom in Cairo coincided with the delegation's arrival Sunday, June 12: a "Mossad officer" was accused of plotting to sabotage the Egyptian revolution and "inciting sectarian violence" against Copts; Israel was charged with contaminating farm products for Egyptian consumption and former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon implicated in ex-President Hosni Mubarak's "corrupt" gas transaction.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 11, 2011
For more than 15 years, Fazul Abdullah Mohammed, 38, slithered out of every US and Israeli undercover operation to nab him, often with minutes to spare. This week, his luck turned:The Somali sentries who shot him dead at a roadblock outside Mogadishu had no idea who he was.debkafile:The passing of this highly competent terrorist mastermind leaves al Qaeda's branch in East and the Horn of Africa and Somalia high and dry.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 10, 2011
After the Americans drove Israel security contractors and the Mossad out of Abu Dhabi, the Ofer Brothers thought their business dealings through Palestinian middlemen were safe. US sanctions opened their eyes to this miscalculation.