DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 16, 2011
The Arab revolts have resolved themselves ten months on into a US effort to damp down the Turkey-Israel, Egypt-Israel fires before they blow up - at best into limited military confrontations, whereas Russia, disenchanted with America's removal of Muammar Qaddafi, has stepped in to rescue Syria's Assad.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 16, 2011
Israeli leaders focus on Palestinian UN bid for state recognition to escape grappling with far more serious issues – hostile Turkish steps, Egypt's retreat from peace norms and Hamas' military and weapons buildup.
DEBKAfile Special Report September 15, 2011
Thursday, Sept. 15, Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas went back on his assurance 24 hours earlier to Saudi, European and Egyptian officials and decided to go through with his application to the UN Security Council on Sept. 23 for the admission of a Palestinian state to the world body. This was a pointed rebuff to the Obama administration whose envoys offered to renew US ties with the Palestinians if they refrained from applying to the Security Council. Tuesday, Abbas met with Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan in Cairo.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 15, 2011
Israel and Greece have invoked their new, secret mutual defense pact to counter heavy Turkish sea and air movements in the eastern Mediterranean. debkafile discloses that Israel may gain the new advantage of a military presence at Greek bases following a long phone conversation Wednesday night Sept. 14 between the Israeli and Greek prime ministers. They also agreed to share intelligence. Israel's expanded cabinet of eight was called into session over the Turkish threat to its off-shore oil and gas rigs.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 13, 2011
The Obama administration has turned down a Turkish request for drones or for the deployment of US Predators at Turkish bases until Ankara stops threatening Israel with armed attack, debkafile's military and Washington sources report. Turkey's lack of functioning drones has crippled its military campaign waged against the Kurdish PKK rebels in conjunction with the US and Iran at a critical juncture. Since expelling the Israeli technicians, Ankara has been unable to operate 10 Israeli-made Heron drones.
DEBKAfile Special Report September 12, 2011
Turkey sharply ratchets up its threat of war with Israel. Three Turkish frigates were ordered to the eastern Mediterranean and instructed to disable Israeli military ships if encountered outside Israel's 12-mile territorial waters. This was reported by Turkish naval sources Sept. 12 as Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan was due in Cairo for a controversial visit - in defiance of the Egyptian government's effort to cool the crisis in relations with Israel.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 10, 2011
In first new disclosures on the siege of Israel's Cairo embassy of Friday night, Sept. 9, debkafile reveals the mob was led by Jama'a al-Islamiya, the Egyptian founding branch of Al Qaeda, and two other radical Islamist groups. The February 1993 car bombing of the World Trade Center of New York was an early Jamaa operation under the al Qaeda label. Friday night, when the mob sacked the embassy, the Egyptian police stood by – until the rioters rifled the gunroom of a nearby police HQ.
DEBKAfile Special Report September 10, 2011
Israel's Cairo embassy stood empty Saturday, Sept. 10 after thousands of demonstrators smashed through the wall enclosing the building, broke in and dumped the flag and hundreds of documents through the windows – some classified. debkafile: Egyptian security forces using tear gas and shooting in air failed to contain the howling mob led by Muslim Brotherhood adherents. Two Israeli military planes flew the ambassador and 80 staff home. President Barack Obama expressed concern.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 9, 2011
By ordering Turkish warships to escort aid ships to Gaza and stop Israel's offshore gas exploitation, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is muscling his way into the eastern Mediterranean and taking his dispute with Israel to the brink. He is also challenging Greece and Cyprus. Cairo and Riyadh are also worried about his intentions.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 9, 2011
Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan this week coolly moved his country towards an armed clash with Israel – not just over the Palestinian issue, but because he covets the gas and oil resources found opposite Israel's shores. He has ordered Turkish warships to enter the eastern Mediterranean in the belief that by breaking Israel's Gaza blockade, he will win kudos as the first Muslim leader to challenge Israel militarily on behalf of the Palestinians and Arab acclaim as the big shot of the region.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis September 6, 2011
Home Front Commander Maj. Gen. Eyal Eisenberg warned Monday, Sept. 5 of the increasing peril of a total Middle East war in the wake of the Arab revolts and Israel's rift with Turkey. His comments shocked Israel's policy-makers and defense establishment out of their placidity. The defense minister's adviser Amos Gilead, hurriedly denied this prediction. "Israel's security situation has never been better," he said insisting "The Arab regimes around us are stable."
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 5, 2011
Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas surprised a group of Israeli intellectuals whom he received in Ramallah Monday, Sept. 5, by informing them that he had met Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak in Amman on Aug. 24. debkafile's sources disclose that the Barak-Abbas conversation in Jordan was more businesslike than diplomatic. It revolved around the Palestinian UN application to be submitted on Sep. 20 and clear security limits laid down by Barak for the Palestinian popular street response. Jordan's intelligence chief was also present.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 4, 2011
debkafile's US sources disclose that the Erdogan government may act as though it calls the shots in the region to cow Israel, but Turkey is fast sliding into deep economic slump. In Washington, the Erdogan government's threat to incite an "Arab revolt" against Israel is seen as beyond acceptable diplomatic bounds, while its other threat on maritime movement in the Mediterranean is ridiculed: "The Turkish Navy is no match for Israeli missile boat technology, electronic jamming and tracking systems, submarines and close air cover."
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis September 2, 2011
For two years, Turkey has tirelessly maligned Israel, aided its enemies and schemed to destroy its army's strategic value as a key American ally. This campaign hit a serious contretemps in the UN report out Friday, Sept. 2 which justified Israel's Gaza blockade and its navy's interception of a Turkish vessel bent on breaching that blockade, although Israel was assailed for its "excessive response" to the violence of Turkish extremists. Ankara thereupon expelled the Israeli ambassador and suspended its military accords with Israel.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 2, 2011
All ten presidential contenders in Egypt are plugging an anti-Israel line and promising to annul the peace treaty with Israel – even though the military rulers show no sign of setting dates for presidential and parliamentary elections. Israel remains silent as Cairo tears up the peace treaty piece by piece.
DEBKAfile Special Report August 31, 2011
The Cairo media's highly colored accounts Monday, Aug. 30 of 1,500 Egyptian commandos and tanks supposedly raiding Jihad Islami and al Qaeda cells in Sinai are pure fiction, debkafile's military sources confirm. Israeli forces along the Gazan and Egyptian borders down to Eilat stand at the highest level of preparedness for a Jihad Islami group which left the Gaza Strip for Sinai on Aug. 24 to strike. The terrorists now hold the initiative thereby sapping the IDF's deterrent strength.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 27, 2011
The Egyptian army is negotiating deals with 13 Bedouin tribal chiefs for setting up militias to secure their territories in Sinai and the Israeli border region against raiders, terrorists and smugglers. On offer are new weapons, training and monthly paychecks for undertaking this task. The Sawarka and Tiyaha tribal chiefs have accepted. Sinai's Bedouin population of approximately 100,000 might produce a fighting force of 8,000-10,000, debkafile's military sources estimate, but their loyalties tend to be changeable.
DEBKAfile Special Report August 24, 2011
Israeli units on the Egyptian frontier went on peak alert Wednesday night, Aug. 24, following specific intelligence that Palestinian Jihad Islami was set to launch another cross-border attack from Sinai. Earlier Wednesday, Gen. Benny Gantz, Chief of Staff announced that Israel's Defense Forces were no longer treating the Egyptian frontier as a border of peace because of new threats. The new situation was exemplified by the terrorist attacks Palestinian gunmen launched from Egyptian Sinai on Aug. 8 killing eight Israeli civilians and injuring forty.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 22, 2011
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu ruled Sunday, Aug. 21, that his first priority is to grant Egypt's military rulers the kudos for brokering a ceasefire in the Gaza missile war – and deal later with the Palestinian Jihad Islami which fired most of the 100 missiles exploding in Israel from Gaza in the last four days. debkafile: He was wrong: Cairo will come back for more concessions under Muslim Brotherhood pressure; Jihad Islami and its masters, Tehran and Hizballah, remain free to restart missile fire any time.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 21, 2011
The role of Iran and Hizballah in manipulating the ongoing Palestinian war on Israel from Gaza is now manifest, debkafile's military sources report. They planned, orchestrated and funded the coordinated attacks on the Eilat Highway Thursday, Aug. 18 and its sequel: volleys of 90 missiles launched day and night from Gaza against a million Israeli civilians. The Netanyahu government hesitates to send the IDF to stop the missiles flying from Gaza lest the same aggressors open another front leading to a regional war.