DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 12, 2012
The first week of October is the latest agreed timeline for a US-Israeli decision to strike Iran because after that it will be too late. Iran’s nuclear breakout is now counted in weeks, nuclear diplomacy has fallen through and President Obama is closer than ever before to a decision. DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources add that France has also begun transferring special forces to its UAE bases and Britain is completing preparations for deploying large ground, naval and air forces to Kuwait.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 9, 2012
Israel was taken aback by US President Barack Obama’s invitation to Egyptian President Mohammed Mursi - in breach of Obama's assurances to US Jewish leaders, debkafile reports. His key assurance was not to invite Mursi to the White House until the Egyptian president met certain conditions, the foremost of which was a public and specific statement of Egypt's commitment to its 1979 peace treaty with Israel as a central theme in Morsi's earliest foreign policy speech.
DEBKAfile Special Report July 5, 2012
Moscow has removed the gloves in its defense of Syrian ruler Bashar Assad. Wednesday, July 4, senior Russian official Ruslan Pukhov warned: “If the Syrian regime is changed by force or if Russia doesn't like the outcome, it most likely will respond by selling S-300s to Iran." This threat gave substance to the hints thrown out by Russian President Vladimir Putin during his June 25 visit to Israel about breaking the UN arms embargo against Iran. debkafile’s military sources disclose that Israel has developed counter-measures for this advanced Russian missile.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 4, 2012
The Saudis, not invited to join negotiations either on Syria or Iran, have gone ahead with their own plans for beating Iran to the nuclear draw.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 3, 2012
The US is piling up military strength in the Persian Gulf against potential Iranian attempts to block the Gulf of Hormuz, or otherwise retaliate for the European oil embargo in force since July 1. As the Revolutionary Guards staged a missile exercise against “enemy air bases,” more than 40,000 US troops were massed on two strategic islands facing Iran. The drums of war came with curtains on nuclear diplomacy. Iran and six world powers met for the last time in Istanbul Tuesday. Oil topped $100 for the first time in three weeks.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 28, 2012
President Morsi’s respect for the peace treaty with Israel and respect for minority and religious rights will determine whether he is received at the White House, gains the $1.5 bn US aid package, and its help in releasing funds to buy food for the population.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 28, 2012
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has often before exploited his many medical problems for manipulation. Although “enjoying” ill health, he is very much in control of affairs of state in the Islamic Republic, although a crop of would-be successors are waiting in the wings for him to go. The radicals have a profound interest in keeping Iran's nuclear program, his pet project, afloat after he is gone, and are exploiting gossip about his ill health to speed matters up.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 25, 2012
The high point of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s noteworthy 90-minute talk with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem Monday, June 25, was Putin’s firm assurance that Iran would not get a nuclear bomb. He stressed it would be against Russian interests, debkafile reports exclusively. “We [Russians] know more about what is going on with Iran’s (nuclear) capabilities than the Americans,” he said, indicating that Israel would be better served spending in Moscow some of the time taken up by endless palaver with the Americans.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 24, 2012
Al Qaeda infiltrators from Libya are spearheading much of this month’s anti-Israel violence from Sinai and the Gaza Strip - a dangerous development Israel, Hamas, Egypt and the US prefer to conceal. It appears to tie in with the arrival of al Qaeda’s ex-Iraq fighters in Syria as part of its leader's master plan. Deeply concerned to check the spillover from Libya into Egypt, Cairo has posted its elite counter-terrorist “999 unit” in El Arish, on Egypt’s border with the Gaza Strip and along the northern sector of its frontier with Israel.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 21, 2012
The combination of lawless Sinai under the control of Bedouin bands, al Qaeda and Salafist militias and Cairo ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood is the recipe for strife between Israel and Egypt.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis June 20, 2012
At a particularly sensitive moment in Israeli-Egyptian relations, Israel’s military leaders were caught napping by the June 18 terrorist attack from Sinai on the southern Route 10, in which an Israeli fence team worker was killed. Because they were too slow to catch on to the identity of the perpetrators (al Qaeda), those military chiefs aimed their reprisals at the wrong quarters (Hamas and Jihad Islami) and so set off a three-day, still ongoing missile-for-air strike cycle in Gaza.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis June 18, 2012
Islamist candidate Muhammad Mursi did not wait for the ballots to be counted before proclaiming himself President of Egypt. Shafiq’s protest that final results were not in was drowned out by street celebrations preparing the masses to confirm the Brotherhood win. The Netanyahu government did not oppose Obama’s policy of bringing Muslims to power through the ballot box and now faces Moslem adversaries from a strategic pit. To recover its deterrent effectiveness, Israel must dismantle Iran’s nuclear program by force.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 14, 2012
Egypt’s transitional military government assumes legislative powers after the constitutional court Thursday, June 14, dissolved parliament because one-third of its seats were gained illegally in an election which handed two Islamist parties a majority. Egyptians found they face a new general election two days before they vote in the presidential runoff. The court also ruled that Ahmed Shafiq, Mubarak’s last prime minister, would stay in the presidential race.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 12, 2012
Col. Adam Zusman, Home Front Commander of Israel’s Dan region told AFP Tuesday, June 12, "In case of a missile attack on the centre of Israel, especially unconventional attacks and if buildings are destroyed, the population from Tel Aviv and other cities will be evacuated and relocated in other areas of the country." The first Israeli official to speak openly of this prospect, he did not say to where the roughly three million inhabitants of Tel Aviv and its environs would be relocated. The threat came from Iran and its allies, he said..
DEBKAfile Special Report June 10, 2012
Tehran early Sunday June 10 accused Syrian rebels of arming themselves with chemical weapons originating in Libya and acquiring training in their use - sending shudders of alarm through the West and Israel. They fear the Assad regime is preparing the ground for chemical assaults to finally crush its foes. Both sides to the conflict are talking about chemical warfare openly. If they go through with it, President Barack Obama will have to reconsider non-intervention and turn to limited force to stop the escalating horror.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 6, 2012
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrives in Baku, Azerbaijan Wednesday, June 6, amid Ali Khamenei and Vladimir Putin’s deep disapproval of President Ilam Aliyav’s pro-Western orientation and fast-growing ties with Israel. Frictions center on Baku’s $1.6 billion arms transaction with Israel and even more, debkafile reports, on the fact that the deal is matched by expanding Azerbaijani investment in Israel’s Mediterranean gas and oil projects. This tradeoff is marked for expansion.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 3, 2012
As Syrian ruler Bashar Assad stood before parliament in Damascus Sunday, June 3, declaring, “Not even monsters could have carried out the Houla massacre,” rebels attacked a Syrian Air Force base east of the southern town of Deraa opposite the Israeli Golan border – their first such attack in the 14-month uprising, debkafile’s military sources report. Several rebel teams firing mortars set fire to fighter aircraft and assault helicopters in their hangars at the As Suwayda air base and ripped up runways.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 2, 2012
Two radical developments arising from the Syrian conflict are revealed by debkafile: In an astonishing about face, Turkey has abandoned its 14-month support for the Syrian revolt alongside the West and made common cause with Russia, i.e. Bashar Assad. Further exacerbating fears of a “proxy war” involving Israel, Iran and Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah is preparing to transfer its Scud D missiles, capable of hitting any point in Israel, from Syria to Lebanon. Israel has threatened to stop their crossing by force.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 1, 2012
Obama has come up with yet another seven-point plan for breaking down Iran’s resistance to abandoning its nuclear weapon aspirations. This time he believes it will work, after obtaining Iran’s consent. Our experts are skeptical.