Jordan's King Abdullah II was warned in Washington this week to hurry up and introduce political reforms because a revolt against the throne was knocking at his door from neighboring Syria, debkafile's Washington sources report.  US intelligence updates informed him the threat came from the potential spillover of the tumult rocking Syria. If that happened, Israel would have to decide whether to step in to save the Hashemite throne as well as preventing the unrest infecting West Bank Palestinians and Israeli Arabs communities.

Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan wants to visit Gaza next Sunday or Monday (24-25 July), debkafile reports. But both Turkish and Egyptian security services fear the visit would give the al Qaeda cells based in the Gaza Strip and Sinai a chance to assassinate him. Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas maintains it would amount to de facto Turkish and Egyptian recognition of the Hamas government. And in Jerusalem, Erdogan would appear to be deliberately hampering efforts to heal its rift with Ankara.

On the fifth anniversary of Israel's second Lebanon war this week, as former IDF generals and military experts hailed its outcome as the winning deterrent keeping the Shiite terrorist Hizballah at bay every since, Hassan Nasrallah quietly completed the organization's takeover of Lebanon's security and intelligence agencies and took delivery of advanced ballistic missiles from Syria. Hizballah is therefore going from strength to strength in Lebanon – contrary to the view current in top Israeli circles.

The News of the World hacking scandal hanging over Rupert Murdoch's global empire and British Prime minister David Cameron could conceivably erupt in Israel where tycoons with media holdings also aspire to determine who rules the country. Tabloid methods are just as dodgy in Israel, but the difference lies in the influence the British media have over the voter thanks to their high professional standards which attract huge audiences. Murdoch is already in the UK to stem the damage to his empire.
 

Western and Israeli intelligence missed Iran's spectacular nuclear fast-forward by miscalculating its timelines. It now appears that by 2012, Tehran will have around four-to-six bombs or warheads in stock and have tested ICBMs for their delivery. Uranium enrichment will be raised to 60 percent by relocating the plants from Natanz ...

American Jewish leaders visiting Jerusalem this summer are giving the Israeli prime minister all kinds of advice – some say quietly back Republican hopeful Jon Huntsman but both advise him to stay clear of the presidential race because the odds still back Barack Obama.

The latest DEBKA-Net-Weekly out Friday uncovered Iran's surreptitious leaps and bounds toward a home-made nuclear weapon. Tehran has not only executed four nuclear-capable missile tests, but actually constructed a nuclear warhead prototype.
This issue showed how Tehran has crossed every red line set by the West against Iran acquiring nuclear arms by furtively exploiting the months of furious Arab unrest for high speed, undisturbed progress. Western and Israeli intelligence are now waking up to some unpleasant surprises.

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The pipeline carrying Egyptian natural gas to Israel and Jordan via Sinai was blown up early Monday, July 4, for the third time in six months. All three attacks were carried out according to debkafile's military sources, by a special Hamas pipeline sabotage unit working with al Qaeda-allied Bedouin smugglers.This time, the Hamas retaliated for the stoppage of the international flotilla before it could set out to break the Israeli naval blockade on the Gaza Strip.

The Palestinian Authority is broke. Prime Minister Salam Fayyad appealed to "donors and our Arab brothers" Sunday, June 3, for urgent assistance after being forced to halve civil servants' July wages. The US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia could save the PA from bankruptcy – in theory. But, debkafile reports, the Saudis prefer to channel cash to Jordan and Washington's bailout is conditional on Mahmoud Abbas dropping his unilateral UN initiative and going back to negotiations with Israel.

The organizers of Freedom Flotilla II against Israel's naval blockade on Gaza – among them Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal's son-in-law Hamoud Tareq - never dreamed the stalling of their expedition would be served up as the founding step of the nascent pro-US Israel-Greek-Turkish alliance. If Mahmoud wants to jump aboard this grouping, he must drop his UN move for Palestinian recognition, so pre-empting the storm Binyamin Netanyahu's ill-wishers are counting on for ending his rule.

debkafile offers exclusive details on the British Foreign Secretary William Hague's allegation Wednesday, June 29, that Iran has carried out secret tests of missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payload in breach of UN resolution 1929: Three of those tests, four in all, were carried out between October 2010 and February 2011and the fourth on Tuesday, June 28, in the course of the Prophet Mohammed war games currently in progress. Three tests by Sejjil and Shahab-3 Kadar were successful.

British Foreign Secretary William Hague stated Wednesday, June 29:  "Iran has been carrying out covert ballistic missile tests and rocket launches, including testing missiles capable of delivering a nuclear payload in contravention of UN resolution 1929." Hague was the first Western leader to confirm debkafile's disclosures in the past year. He spoke as American naval, air and marine forces built up in the Mediterranean, the Aden and Oman straits, the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea.  

Iran's big war game was launched Monday, June 27 ahead of a Turkish operation against Syria's Assad regime anticipated by its military and Revolutionary Guards chiefs, with the unveiling of its first underground missile silo. debkafile reports Tehran expects the Turkish army to have US air and naval support in case of Iranian reprisals against them both. Israel moves an Iron Dome rocket interceptor battery to Haifa.

Five years after the Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit was kidnapped by Hamas in a cross-border raid from Gaza, members of his family Saturday, June 25, chained themselves to the fence outside the Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's residence in desperate protest.  debkafile: Their protest is misdirected to the wrong address: Even if Israel bowed to every Hamas demand, its leaders backed by Iran and Syria would set a new price as the pretext for holding on to this prime asset.
 

As Turkey heads for a military showdown with Syria, Ankara has agreed to restore military and intelligence collaboration in the eastern Mediterranean with Israel, debkafile reports. The deal worked out between President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu also returns Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan to a role in Israeli-Palestinian diplomacy and gives him a chance to try and bring Hamas aboard. Deputy Prime Minister Moshe Yaalon finalized the details in secret talks in Ankara.

Obama and Erdogan had divided up Arab Revolt missions between them, targeting another two Arab rulers, Muammar Qaddafi and Bashar Assad, for eventual eviction – first by diplomacy, then by force - when Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi jumped in with a demand for NATO to halt hostilities in ...

Prime Minister Netanyahu has dropped his long-time ally and partner-in-policymaking Defense Minister Ehud Barak and turned to hardline Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman as his only adviser. But essentially, Bibi has dispensed with a circle of advisers and taken over the solo lead in all defense affairs and important foreign relations.

Lebanon has a new government headed by Najib Mikati, ally of Syrian President Bashar Assad and Hizballah. Formed suddenly on June 13, the 30-minister lineup has earmarked an unprecedented 18 portfolios – including defense and interior – to Hizballah loyalists and pro-Syrian politicians. While fighting the uprising against his rule, Bashar Assad has recaptured Beirut. The appointment of friendly Fayez Ghosn as defense minister places the army at the service of Damascus and portends trouble on the Lebanese-Israeli border.

 A man has been arrested suspected of cutting the gas pipe and causing the huge explosion and fire which wrecked a four-story residential building on Independence Square in the Israeli seaside town of Netanya after midnight Thursday, June 16. Large teams of paramedics and fire fighters were called in and fought their way into the building amid a strong smell of gas. Four people were killed on the spot and another 96 injured – most with minor injuries.  

Assad's decision to bank on the army to extinguish the revolt against him is paying off. The US and the West could have starved him of funds for his crackdown by an embargo on Syrian oil experts – but refrained from doing so. In any case, the Syrian economy ...