DEBKAfile DEBKA Weekly August 22, 2012
A powerful US administration faction is pushing hard for military intervention in Syria now. It argues the time is ripe and fast action would have the added value of delaying an Israeli strike against Iran. Jumping into the fray, the latest DEBKA-Net-Weekly out last Friday judged the strength of the anti-interventionists surrounding President Barack Obama. Their only concession was the president’s threat this week to Bashar Assad against using chemical and biological weapons.
DEBKAfile Video August 21, 2012
Some Western intelligence circles suggest that Israel may choose to disable Iran’s nuclear program by eliminating its leaders.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 20, 2012
Israel has asked the Obama administration to intervene with Cairo for the removal of Egyptian tanks deployed in Sinai without permission, fearing they are there to stay. This issue has become tangled up in broader issues: President Mohamed Morsi hints that substantial US economic aid is the key to the tanks’ removal, the launch of a major Egyptian offensive on al Qaeda-linked Sinai terrorists and his refusal of an invitation to visit Tehran. Israel has posted an Iron Dome battery in Eilat against more missile strikes from Sinai.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 17, 2012
The disclosure Thursday night, Aug.16 by an American source that a worst-case scenario could require up to 60,000 ground troops for securing Syria's chemical and biological weapons sites was meant as psychological preparation for chemical warfare, say debkafile’s military sources, as Syria’s neighbors make ready.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 16, 2012
Saudis offered Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in Mecca a non-aggression pact. Tehran rejection would lay Iran open to attack. The Iranian president sought counter-guarantees that Saudi Arabia would not be party to US or Israeli attacks. It is up to Khamenei to decide what next.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 16, 2012
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has set up house in Sinai and Gaza, dedicating itself to attacks on Israel. The Egyptian army’s big counter-terror offensive shows no signs of taking off, although its M-60 tanks looking like having come to stay on the Israeli border.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis August 15, 2012
US Gen. Martin Dempsey said Tuesday, Aug. 14 Israel could “delay but not destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities.” debkafile: Israel's leaders and military chiefs don’t pretended otherwise, because even a US strike could no longer destroy those capacities. Today, an Israeli attack could delay Iran for a couple of years; an American strike, for 4-5 years. 2007 was the last moment for totaling the program. But the longer action is held off now the shorter the delay achievable in Iran’s bomb-building time table.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 12, 2012
The United States last week began laying plans for the contingency of Syrian chemical warfare by setting up joint military, intelligence and medical working teams with Israel, Turkey and Jordan. All three are feared under threat by Syrian president Bashar Assad, debkafile reports - as are US military facilities there. The White House, the CIA and the Pentagon’s DIA are laying odds on a Syrian unconventional attack, and all three countries under potential threat have ordered their medical services to make preparations.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 10, 2012
Israel willingly acceded to Cairo’s request for permission to deploy fighter planes and armored troop carriers in Sinai - a demilitarized buffer zone under their 1979 peace treaty – in support of President Mohamed Morsi’s counter-terror offensive against lawless Islamist bands. debkafile reports: It was soon realized in Washington and Jerusalem that the “offensive” was largely bogus and being used less for eliminating Salafi terrorists and more for purging the Egyptian military of pro-Western influence and promoting its takeover by the Muslim Brotherhood.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 8, 2012
Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi, in conjunction with military chief Field Marshall Hussein Tantawi, fired a row of top military, intelligence and police officials Wednesday, Aug. 8, after more armed Islamist attacks on Egyptian troops. Morsi replaced Intelligence chief Gen. Mourad Mowafi with Maj. Gen. Mohamed Shehata, and fired the governor of North Sinai, Abdel Wahab Mabrouk, as well as other officials. The president acted expeditiously to quell street protest over declining Sinai security but is not yet grappling with its root cause, Islamist terror.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 7, 2012
Monday, Aug. 6, the head of Iran’s National Security Council Saeed Jalili touched down in Beirut shortly after Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani declared: "The fire that has been ignited in Syria will take the fearful (Israelis) with it. Jalili (not Larijani as misreported earlier) came for urgent on-the-spot coordination with Hizballah leader Hassan Nasrallah before continuing Tuesday to Damascus. They discussed ways of stamping Iran’s mark on Syria after Bashar Assad’s exit. Military plans against Israel are part of their schemes.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis August 6, 2012
The initial Egyptian and Israeli accounts of the attacks in which 16 Egyptian soldiers were killed and the Israeli border crashed Sunday night, Aug. 5, don’t match up: Egypt points the finger at the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip; Israel at Sinai salafists. debkafile postulates a third option: Tehran may have harnessed its Gaza Strip proxies and a Sinai al Qaeda cell for coordinated attacks on Egyptian and Israeli military targets to avenge Al Qaeda’s enlistment to the Western-Arab-backed revolt against Bashar Assad.
DEBKAfile Special Report August 5, 2012
The Israeli Air Force struck two APCs seized by Sinai Salafis who first stormed an Egyptian post on the Egyptian-Israeli border Sunday night, Aug. 5, killing at least 15 Egyptian commandos, injuring many and kidnapping an unknown number. The gunmen then smashed the APCs through to the Kerem Shalom terminal. The one which got across was destroyed by the IAF. debkafile: This appears to be the first Sinai-based Islamist reprisal against Egyptian troops for an Israeli counter-terror operation in the Gaza Strip.
Obama’s Dilemma: Take Lead on Iran Attack from Israel - or Delay until Tactical Nuclear Strike Is Only Recourse
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 3, 2012
Iran’s fast-advancing mega-fortification for its nuclear sites gives Israel and its current military capabilities no more than three months for a disruptive - not destructrive - attack on its nuclear program with conventional weapons. A delay will make a tactical nuclear strike the only feasible option. That is the dilemma US President Barack Obama must resolve.
DEBKAfile DEBKA Weekly July 31, 2012
US, Israeli, Saudi and Iranian war preparations are on fast forward, as the coming issue of DEBKA-Net-Weekly discloses in detail next Friday. All their leaders face agonizing decisions in the weeks ahead. US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta is on a tour of inspection to make sure US Middle East military forces are ready for an operation against Iran. Its timeline is now pared down to weeks because Iran's ongoing mega-fortifications threaten to make its nuclear facilities indestructible - even by American super-weapons.
DEBKAfile Special Report July 28, 2012
Hassan Nasrallah has released a video clip recording Hizballah’s 2006 raid which ended in the deaths of eight IDF soldiers and the kidnapping of Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev. Hot military pursuit for their rescue mired Israel in the ill-prepared, misconceived Second Lebanon war which Hizballah claimed to have won. debkafile: The tape is designed and timed as a warning to Israel that Nasrallah is free to launch his next war with a similar ending any time now, fully backed by Iran and Syria.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 27, 2012
Although six governments are helping the Syrian rebels, Israel and Jordan are Assad’s primary targets for chemical weapon retaliation. Unmoved by US and Israeli warnings, he keeps those weapons ready for use at a time of his choosing.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 27, 2012
The team which set up the suicide bombing of a Bulgarian bus which killed five Israelis and the local driver has vanished without a trace. Even the bomber’s body did not yield up a scrap of information or lead to the perpetrators or their controllers.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis July 26, 2012
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz are rightly using a necessary austerity package as a lever for getting the country on track for a war economy, without saying so. They avoid discussing the consequences and duration of the new measures because they can’t tell how long a war, which they believe may be close, will last or how it will end. debkafile estimates that they are quietly building a $25-30 strategic financial reserve for the worst-case scenario.