DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 24, 2013
As Al Qods rounds up a Shiite legion across the Middle East to fight for Damascus, Hizballah is deeply reluctant to stay in the Syrian war arena any longer. The Saudis are pushing for a government in Beirut that will pull Hizballah out of Syria.
DEBKAfile Special Report October 17, 2013
Early last year, the Erdogan government blew the cover of up to 10 Israel agents in Iran. This story was published in The Washington Post, Thursday, Oct. 17 – the day after the Geneva conference on Iran’s nuclear program was hailed by Western powers led by the US as “substantive” and “forward-looking.” debkafile: The WP story was a broad hint to Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu that his refusal to get behind the New Middle East, and accept Barack Obama’s take on Iran’s position, would expose Israel to more intelligence debacles.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 7, 2013
Hizballah is surreptitiously withdrawing thousands of fighting men from Syria after an intervention for saving the Assad regime. debkafile: This withdrawal closes Tehran’s first successful experiment in fielding a surrogate force for determining the outcome of a war in an important strategic arena. Despite heavy losses, Hizballah comes out toughened by combat experience and seasoned in running regular military units in battle under combined Iranian-Syrian command. The Lebanese Shiites have won a tactical advantage over the IDF which has not faced real combat since 2006.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 4, 2013
Hizballah begins pulling its troops out of Syria in obedience to a directive from Tehran and turns his attention to building a national consensus in Beirut in order to foster a pacific and stable climate in Lebanon.
DEBKAfile Special Report September 29, 2013
Western military sources predict an upsurge of tension this week along Israel’s borders with Syria and Lebanon, timed for Binyamin Netanyahu’s White House meeting with President Barack Obama Monday, Sept. 30, and his address to the UN General Assembly the next day, Oct. 1. Moscow, Tehran and Damascus may exploit Israel’s weak moment after being pushed out in the cold by the Obama administration’s pursuit of new relations with Tehran, by provoking Israel into a military response and presenting it as the neighborhood warmonger and disrupter of US-Russian diplomacy.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 2, 2013
The Iranian parliamentarians visiting Damascus Sunday, Sept. 1, advised Bashar Assad to move his chemical stockpile out of Syria for temporary storage in Tehran under Iranian and Russian military supervision, so as to ward off an American military strike, debkafile reveals. Chairman of the Majlis Foreign Affairs Committee Ala-Eddin Borujerdi suggested destroying the chemical arsenal as an alternative. Tehran wants to prevent a US attack on Syria – both to conceal the Iranian provenance of the nerve agents and to avoid any precedent for a strike against Iran.
DEBKAfile Special Report September 1, 2013
President Barack Obama’s about-turn Saturday night, Aug. 31 on the planned US military operation against Syria’s chemical weapons has shaken up the volatile Middle East balance of strength, giving Israel, Jordan and Turkey “a military nightmare.” By suspending the US military threat, Obama has given Iran, Syria and Hizballah the time and freedom to stage a pre-emptive strike against America and its regional allies. Israel’s authorities are taking no chances and keeping in place the military and security preparedness on the country’s Syrian and Lebanese borders.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 30, 2013
The Russians will not seek a military brush with the Americans but may seize Syrian territory to keep it safe in case Bashar Assad is forced to flee Damascus. The Iranians may try and disrupt US destroyers at sea by a cyber ambush of their systems.
Mid-East including Israel on high alert after Obama’s failed last-ditch bid for Syria deal with Iran
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 26, 2013
Monday night, Aug. 25, saw Middle East countries, including Israel, on high military alert after learning of US President Barack Obama’s failure to reach an understanding with Tehran to avert a US-led operation against Syria over its chemical attacks. debkafile: Obama’s two emissaries were Deputy UN Secretary Jeffrey Feltman and Sultan Qaboos of Oman. Tehran’s rebuff signaled orders to US military assets in the Mediterranean and Persian Gulf to go on high preparedness. Iran, Russia and Syria redeployed in readiness for Syria to face attack.
DEBKAfile Special Report August 25, 2013
The US has little doubt the Syrian government used chemical weapons against civilians, a senior US official said Sunday, Aug. 25. "At this juncture, any belated regime decision to grant access to the UN team would be considered too late to be credible, including because the evidence available has been significantly corrupted.,” he said. This reaction indicated the White House had not backed away from military intervention, even after Tehran warned the US not to “cross red lines” in Syria and Moscow advised Washington to “avoid tragic mistakes.”
The sarin shells fired on Damascus - by Syrian 4th Division’s 155th Brigade - were followed by rockets on Israel and car bombings in Lebanon
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis August 24, 2013
Within 48 hours, Assad and Iran launched a three-point punitive offensive for foreign intervention in the Syrian war, debkafile reports. The facts: The sarin nerve gas shells which claimed more than 1,000 Syrian lives Wednesday, Aug. 21, were fired by the 155th Brigade of the Syrian army’s 4th Division commanded by Gen. Maher Assad from Mount Kalmun. This atrocity was followed by a rocket attack on Israel from Lebanon and deadly blasts in Tripoli. The price for not stopping Assad and Tehran now is likely to become even grimmer.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 23, 2013
Because of the coup in Egypt, Iran doubled its military strength in Syria in fear of losing its last Arab foothold. Protecting Shiite shrines is a useful rallying cry for volunteers.
DEBKAfile Special Report August 22, 2013
The four rockets striking Israel from South Lebanon Thursday, Aug. 22, were Grad 120mm rockets launched by the Jihad Islami from the Palestinian Burj Al-Shamali refugee camp near Tyre. This emerged after a stream of muddled and conflicting communiqués came from the IDF spokesman. The Jihad Islami takes its orders from Tehran and the Lebanese Hizballah. One of the rockets was intercepted by Iron Dome. None inflicted casualties, except for three shock victims, but they did cause damage to buildings and vehicles in two locations.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 2, 2013
Moscow and Washington are vying for Tehran’s favors. While Washington is painting the new president as a moderate, Moscow is preparing the way for a high-powered visit to Tehran by Vladimir Putin by dangling an offer of highly advanced air-defense missiles.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 2, 2013
Important US figures have taken great pains to portray the incoming Iranian president Hasan Rouhani as a moderate, who is anxious to repair relations with the US. His new cabinet will upset their hopes.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 31, 2013
Israel has twice switched its orientation toward the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip: In November 2012, Muslim Brotherhood-ruled Egypt, Qatar and Turkey, negotiated the ceasefire ending Israel’s Pillar of Defense operation against Hamas missiles. From July 2013, Israel has been cooperating with the Egyptian military and its champion, Saudi Arabia – witness permission for Egyptian Apache gun ships to fly over Gaza. So what happens when the Egyptian military launches a major operation against Hamas – in defiance of the US and Palestinian Authority, with whom Israel launched peace talks this week?
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report July 25, 2013
The slimmed down IDF budget and reform program are powerfully opposed by distinguished military figures at home who say that junking tanks and ground forces is too risky in the current Middle East climate.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 27, 2013
Iran is stirring up Shiite-Sunni warfare in Syria to promote its drive for Middle East hegemony. Tehran is lighting a match that could raise up Sunni radicals like al Qaeda and send flames shooting across the Muslim world.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 17, 2013
The conditions Vladimir Putin will lay down for a G8 consensus on Syria are that Bashar Assad remains in power in any political solution and Iran be part of that solution. He will address the summit opening Monday in Northern Ireland in the interests of his allies, Bashar Assad, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Hassan Nasrallah and demand that the summit acknowledge them as winners of the war. Putin will block any attempt by Barak Obama to use the election of Hassan Rouhani as Iran’s president to counter those successes.
DEBKAfile Special Report June 15, 2013
The Obama administration and Israel’s Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon on a visit to Washington backed away Friday, June 14, from any effective response to the Syrian ruler’s proven use of chemical weapons against rebel forces. On the ground, debkafile’s military sources reported Hizballah and Syrian army movements were detected heading toward the Golan and the Jordanian border from the military concentrations building up in the last two weeks around the nearby town of Deraa. Those sources also concluded that Hizballah has been awarded “limited-use” chemical weapons