On March 25, in Seoul, President Barack Obama and Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan agreed on the six-point US policy outline the latter would carry to the Iranian leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ahead of Iran’s forthcoming nuclear talks with six world powers. The exercise was not a success. Khamenei has still not answered the president’s missive and Tehran has turned its guns on Erdogan. The six points published here were first revealed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly on March 29.

Russian-Iranian solidarity was dented this week by Tehran’s games to stall the nuclear talks scheduled for mid-April. Moscow wants diplomacy started without delay because Middle East tensions are close to boiling point. Iran vetoes Istanbul as the venue and refuses to talk under military or financial pressure.

Tehran is seeking a postponement of the nuclear negotiations with world powers set for April 13-14 in Istanbul, debkafile’s Iranian sources report. Washington and Jerusalem see Iran’s maneuvers as guided by two objectives: Having the venue removed from Istanbul and buying a couple more months before the diplomatic crunch - and so delaying any military option that Israel or possibly America may choose to exercise if last-chance diplomacy fails.  Russian rhetoric targets the US military and naval buildup around Iran.

Iran, Syria and Hizballah are celebrating Assad’s victory over the 12-month uprising against him and counting the advantages it confers on Tehran against the US and Saudi Arabia. The Iran-Syria-Hizballlah axis is now successfully shored up against the Obama administration’s strategy of isolation and sanctions for squeezing Iran into making concessions at the nuclear negotiations in two weeks.  Both are fading. It also serves as a warning to those Israelis who advocate passing the buck for preempting a nuclear Iran to Washington.

The US President has tacitly indicated to the Iranian leader that if elected to a second term he will have more room for maneuver and a freer hand for pursuing policies agreed in their back-channel dialogue. So please, Iranian officials, speak more kindly about America.

A chance comment by Israeli Vice Premier Moshe Yaalon suggested that a full-blown cyber attack by a mutated form of Stuxnet was at work again in Iran – this time deep underground in the uranium enrichment plant buried in a Fordow bunker near Qom.

Wikileaks Wednesday, March 28 published mails indicating that Binyamin Netanyahu may have been a source ol the US Stratfor research site. Its Vice President for intelligence Fred Burton claimed in e-mails he was in contact with Netanyahu from May 2007 up until 2010 after he became Prime Minister. One e-mail said that in Dec. 2009, “BB” told him Iran has “two nukes on missiles ready to go.” The Prime Minister’s Office in Jerusalem has not commented on the publication.

US President Barack Obama sits down with Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan in Seoul, South Korea Sunday, March 25. Earlier, Obama gave the Turkish leader - and Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu too - a lesson in political expediency: March 20, Washington awarded 11 nations exemptions from new US financial sanctions against Iran. The downscaling of sanctions caught Israel by surprise and angered Turkey, most of all as the outcome of unknown secret US-Iranian talks.

China and Pakistan are profiting hugely from sanctions-busting financial services to Iran, while Russia, India and Turkey also help cushion Tehran against the depredations of sanctions.

While the Obama administration is pleased with the progress of secret diplomacy with Iran, Supreme Leader Khamenei does not expect practical results despite Iranian concessions on its nuclear program.

Ali Falahian, Iran’s senior spokesman on sanctions, said Sunday, March 18: “I suggest that the West take seriously our threat to close the Strait of Hormuz.” This was Tehran’s first response to the SWIFT decision to sever ties with Iranian banks.
Four US and French nuclear aircraft carriers and a dozen or more minesweepers stand by on both sides of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 17 percent of the world’s daily oil supply passes, and Israeli naval vessels are deployed in the Red Sea.

Russia like Iran was the prime helper and is the prime beneficiary of Bashar Assad’s success in crushing the armed revolt against him and gives Vladimir kudos at the start of his presidency. His foreign minister Sergey Lavrov was enabled to call the shots for the 22-member ...

Israel used the Gaza missile war to test and improve three new systems. The brief campaign occasioned the most extensive cyber war Israel has ever conducted, as well giving a new intelligence command and control system its first field test and marking out the many gaps in the big cities' defenses against ...

Israel has developed an improved precision, bunker-burrowing weapon which Israeli Military Industries (IMI) unveiled on March 6 at peak US-Israel friction over a strike against Iran. The 500-pound MPR-500 is an electro-optical bomb that can penetrate double-reinforced concrete walls or floors without breaking apart.  “The lethality, precision… and relatively low weight of the new weapon,” say its manufacturers, “enable its use against multiple targets in a single pass.”  The MPR-500 bridges a gap between the US 250-pound US GBU-39 and the 5,000-pound GBU-28 super-bunker buster.

Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu gave President Obama breathing-space for a decision on the timing of an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, debkafile reports. The US president’s possible July visit to Israel will aim to boost his bid for re-election, depending on such imponderables as whether it comes before or after this attack and who ends up staging it.  Meir Dagan, ex-Mossad chief claims there is still time for diplomacy because Tehran (whose leaders are sworn to destroy Israel and forging ahead with their nuclear program) are rational.

Obama and Netanyahu narrowed the gap between their timetables for attacking Iran to three months – between May and August. In July they meet again – possibly in Israel - for another shared intelligence update and reassessment.

Obama plans to confront Iran with seven conditions for keeping nuclear negotiations with the big powers going – from the word go. One is to sign NPT protocols authorizing spot IAEA inspections of suspicious site. Since no one expects Tehran comply, the military option will soon be back on ...

Barack Obama and Binyamin Netanyahu have both appointed trusted commanders to take charge of preparations for their respective attacks on Iran: Adm. William McRaven, head of US Special Operations Command-SOCOM and Israel’s Air Force chief Maj. Gen. Ido Nehushtan. Whether they led joint operations or act separately ...

The slogan “Israel must be master of its fate” was born of the intelligence reaching Binyamin Netanyahu that Washington had promised Tehran to restrain Israel from an attack on its nuclear sites behind his back. At that point he resolved not to give Obama a heads-up on ...

Only on DEBKA-Net-Weekly: In the latest edition out Friday, find out what the US President and the Israeli Prime Minister really said to each other and the measure of understanding they reached with regard to military action against Iran this year. We can reveal in which areas they agreed on separate US and Israel steps for the common purpose of cutting down Iran’s nuclear weapon capability and in which they will work in harness. Timetables are the key.

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