DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 7, 2012, 12:17 AM (GMT+02:00)
US, Iranian and Israel planners have moved past discussion on whether Israel can be prevented from attacking Iran before the November election and are now talking about their various versions of a second strike option, which all agree will be more devastating than the first.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 7, 2012, 12:17 AM (GMT+02:00)
Iran has found a big hole in the Western sanctions regimen, Oman’s Musandam Peninsula, which channels to Iran all the goods denied the Islamic Republic under sanction.
DEBKAfile Special Report September 5, 2012, 12:38 PM (GMT+02:00)
A third US aircraft carrier, USS Stennis, is moving into place for leading 25 nations in a 12-day naval exercise off Iran’s Gulf coast. A large-scale minesweeping drill will simulate the prevention of Iranian efforts to block the Strait of Hormuz. debkafile: President Barack Obama plans to see Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on Sept. 27, the last day of the exercise, hoping to forestall an Israel attack on Iran’s nuclear sites by demonstrating that the US is serious about military action, a message also addressed to Tehran.
DEBKAfile DEBKA Weekly September 4, 2012, 5:43 PM (GMT+02:00)
The big guns the Obama administration is firing in its dogged battle to head off an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear program may be hitting an impenetrable wall. The dynamic of this titanic contest is explored in the latest DEBKA-Net-Weekly out last Friday, with a rundown of the military preparations set in motion by the US, Britain, France, Saudi Arabia, the UAEA, Iran, Hizballah and Israel itself.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis September 2, 2012, 9:28 AM (GMT+02:00)
The US downgrade of its role in the annual joint drill with Israel in October has the effect of dismembering their joint strategy for deterring and intercepting an Iranian/Hizballah/Syrian assault on Israel; it slashes Israel’s notice of incoming Iranian missiles from 14 minutes, and throws out Ehud Barak’s worst-case estimate of 500 dead from war with Iran. debkafile: Binyamin Netanyahu must demand a White House retraction of Gen. Dempsey's denigration of the morality of an Israel attack and respond to Hurricane Obama.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis September 1, 2012, 10:04 AM (GMT+02:00)
By US Gen. Martin Dempsey’s assertion Thursday, Aug. 30 that the US would not be “complicit” in an Israel strike against Iran, President Barack Obama was telling Israel: You are on your own! See how you manage without special US weapons and US military backup, including a shield against missile counter-attack. debkafile: A secret US-Russian deal is in the works. President Putin has cut off military ties with Iran and Syria, but Obama is having a hard time reciprocating by making Netanyahu give up on force against Iran.
DEBKAfile DEBKA Weekly September 1, 2012, 9:44 AM (GMT+02:00)
Sunni Muslim fighters stream into Syria from across the Middle East, Africa and Central Asia, helped by the US, the UK and Qatar. Iran and Hizballah are pushing Shiite reinforcements into the embattled country. Al Qaeda is deeply plunged in the fray. The latest DEBKA-Net-Weekly out last Friday traces the Syrian war cycle as it widens into a deadly Sunni-Shiite showdown set to outstrip the Afghan and Iraqi wars in scale and violence.
DEBKAfile Special Report August 31, 2012, 9:20 AM (GMT+02:00)
In its bluntest message yet, the Obama administration declared that Israel is on its own if it attacks Iran. Thursday, Aug. 30, Gen. Martin Dempsey, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, reiterated that an Israeli attack would “delay but probably not destroy Iran’s nuclear program,” adding impatiently: “I don't want to be complicit if they [Israel] choose to do it." Sanctions were having an effect, said the general. But as he spoke the IAEA reported a 31 percent jump in Iran’s enriched uranium stock.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 28, 2012, 1:51 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tehran was forced to eat crow and backtrack on its ploy for winning international recognition for its nuclear program by showing Non-Aligned Summit leaders and UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon around its nuclear sites. The tour was planned for Wednesday, Aug. 29. However, debkafile reports that Washington intervened Tuesday and “advised” NAM participants as well as Ban to turn Tehran down on its nuclear tour, which was to have included the suspected nuclear-related explosives testing lab at Parchin.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 23, 2012, 8:44 AM (GMT+02:00)
US C130 transports stand ready at Middle East air bases to fly into Syria US elite units especially trained in combat against chemical and biological weapons and tactics for securing their arsenals against their use or their fall into radical Islamic rebel fighters’ hands. Western intelligence sources reported Thursday, Aug. 23 that those units are on standby at bases in Israel and Jordan. debkafile: Direct American military involvement in the Syrian conflict has effectively begun before action against Iran, although this may follow.
DEBKAfile Video August 21, 2012, 5:57 PM (GMT+02:00)
Some Western intelligence circles suggest that Israel may choose to disable Iran’s nuclear program by eliminating its leaders.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 18, 2012, 2:37 PM (GMT+02:00)
The White House this week scrambled to reconnect with Jerusalem after the Obama administration realized Israel was seriously contemplating a military operation against Iran’s nuclear program this fall - notwithstanding the heavy opposition guns aimed at it at home and from Washington. As Israel embarked on home front defense measures, Obama asked what it would take to hold Israel back before the Nov. 6 US presidential election. The answer: A solemn, binding US guarantee to strike Iran next spring - plus weapons upgrades.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 16, 2012, 11:55 PM (GMT+02:00)
Four separate groups are fighting the Netanyahu government to stop an attack on and if possible to throw it out of office. One is headquartered at the US embassy in Tel Aviv, two others are led by political opposition groups and a fourth is spearheaded by social protest activists ...
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 16, 2012, 10:33 AM (GMT+02:00)
The White House is setting up a meeting between US President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu at the September opening of the next UN General Assembly, at which Netanyahu plans to call for Iran’s expulsion, debkafile reports. Sources close to Obama admit that the US-Israeli dialogue on Iran has petered out and this is hurting the president’s campaign for reelection. Israeli ambassador Michael Oren said Israel would be willing to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities - even for a few years’ delay.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis August 15, 2012, 8:48 AM (GMT+02:00)
US Gen. Martin Dempsey said Tuesday, Aug. 14 Israel could “delay but not destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities.” debkafile: Israel's leaders and military chiefs don’t pretended otherwise, because even a US strike could no longer destroy those capacities. Today, an Israeli attack could delay Iran for a couple of years; an American strike, for 4-5 years. 2007 was the last moment for totaling the program. But the longer action is held off now the shorter the delay achievable in Iran’s bomb-building time table.
DEBKAfile DEBKA Weekly August 14, 2012, 5:44 PM (GMT+02:00)
Barack Obama’s quarrel with Binyamin Netanyahu and Ehud Barak is becoming more intense and personal the closer Israel comes to attacking Iran’s nuclear program before the US Nov. 6 vote. Read the coming DEBKA-Net-Weekly out next Friday, and find out how that feud fires up certain opposition political circles at home and fuels their virulent campaign to tie the Netanyahu government’s hands and so push it out of office.
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DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 13, 2012, 9:53 AM (GMT+02:00)
Iran will have 250 kilograms of 20-percent grade uranium, enough to build its first nuclear bomb, in six weeks, debkafile’s military and intelligence sources report. That deadline prompted Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s comment Sunday, Aug. 12: “All threats against the home front are dwarfed by one – Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear arms!” He was followed 8 hours later by the Muslim Brotherhood coup in Cairo - and a tough security dilemma born of his long foot-dragging on Iran.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 10, 2012, 12:47 AM (GMT+02:00)
Tehran is sticking to its guns and racing forward toward a nuclear weapon in the face of extreme economic hardship. As Ahmadinejad falls out of favor, former president Rafsanjani begins a comeback.
DEBKAfile Special Report August 9, 2012, 2:15 PM (GMT+02:00)
In a radio interview Thursday, Aug. 9, Defense Minister Ehud Barak stoutly refuted reported disagreements between the US and Israel, and himself and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu over a military attack on Iran’s nuclear program. Both see eye to eye on the matter, he said, as do US and Israeli intelligence evaluations. “A nuclear Iran is taking shape before our eyes” Barak stressed, and new US intelligence findings make a decision on a possible attack “extremely urgent."
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 3, 2012, 10:07 AM (GMT+02:00)
An Iran war has become inevitable since international diplomacy gave Iran the time and freedom to accelerate its progress towards a nuclear bomb. While rapidly fortifying its nuclear facilities against bombardment, Tehran is also raising the level of uranium enrichment, developing dirty bombs and sending terrorists to blow up Israelis abroad. Sanctions have failed to force Iran to give up its drive for a nuclear weapon or the development of nuclear-capable ballistic missiles. These dangerous developments are generating the current an eve-of-war climate.