DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis January 5, 2013
Likud’s chief asset, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, may also be its chief liability. His silence and ambiguity, his failure to preempt a nuclear-armed Iran and his alignment with Barak Obama on Middle East affairs affecting Israel’s vital security are hurting his party - the joint Likud-Yisrael Beitenu ticket – which, 17 days before a general election, is on a downward slide to 34 from its first 47-seat rating. Yet, the polls still put him in the top slot (43+ percent) as favorite for prime minister and his left-of-center opposition is falling back.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 25, 2012
Tehran has plans to maintain its grip on Syria, even while Washington and Russia are pressing on with secret discussions on the fate of Syrian president Bashar Assad and, in Damascus, international envoy Lakhdar Brahimi Tuesday, Dec. 25, gave himself an extra six days to mediate a deal for ending the war. debkafile: Saudi intelligence chiefs at the GCC summit in Manama revealed that Iran intends launching Hizballah and local militias to sabotage any international deals and any transitional regime.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report December 10, 2012
Some of the chemical weapons pushed north by the Assad regime may have been sent from Syrian bases at Jabal Kalamon to Hizballah’s Lebanese Beqaa Valley strongholds, to keep them out of rebel hands, including al Qaeda, debkafile reports. Hizballah is thought to have split up the consignment among different bases to make them harder to attack. Assad is believed to have directed his troops to use chemical weapons if the rebels are near to seizing part of Damascus international airport.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 30, 2012
A confidential report submitted to Ayatollah Khamenei advises a massive expansion of military spending focusing on earmarking more money and scientific resources for developing missile and sophisticated unmanned aerial vehicles. The technology and manufacturing plants for sophisticated drones should be transferred to Gaza and Sudan – not Lebanon. This process was underway in Gaza when Israel launched its air offensive against Hamas in mid-November.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 16, 2012
Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood has sent a come-hither signal to the Lebanese Hizballah Shiite extremists raising fears in Washington and Jerusalem that the New Egypt is being drawn into the most radical Middle East orbit.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 6, 2012
Israel has given Damascus a final warning that a military response would be forthcoming if its fighter aircraft infringed the airspace over the Golan demilitarized zones, debkafile reports. The warning, further ratcheting up border tension, was relayed through the UN Disengagement Observer Force in an effort to contain any spillover of the Syrian civil war across Israel’s border. It applied to any ordnance flying across the border and the entry of Syrian forces to the Golan demilitarized zones.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 1, 2012
IRGC spokesman Brig. Gen. Ramezan Sharif’s claim Wednesday, Oct. 30, that the Iranian drone which encroached on Israeli airspace on Oct. 6 “obtained the images of many areas that are important for us,” came to counter IDF Maj. Gen. Yair Golan, Northern Command chief, who said no photos were taken because "I don't think there was a camera there." Tehran now suspects the UAV was not shot down but recovered intact and wants to find out what Israeli intelligence has learned from its equipment.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 29, 2012
Defense Minister Gen. Ahmad Vahidi warned Sunday, Oct. 28: “The drone was definitely not the latest Iranian technology.” He was talking about the drone sent by Iran and Hizballah over Israel on Oct. 6 and implying it was not the last word in their armory - or even the last to reach Israel. debkafile: In mid-September, Tehran secretly shipped to Lebanon a batch of its most advanced Ababil-T UAVs for new missions, after developing a new stealth attack series with a range of 2,000 kilometers.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 26, 2012
Washington acted fast to hold back Lebanon’s anti-Syrian Lebanese forces from avenging the assassination of Lebanon’s top intelligence chief, Brig. Gen. Wissam al-Hasan to save Lebanon from being ripped apart by a civil war. Assad and Nasrallah were allowed to get away with it.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 21, 2012
Iran has located its global cyber war-room at Hizballah’s secret internal security apparatus headquarters in South Beirut, under the direction of Hassan Nasrallah’s brother-in-law Wafiq Safa ,debkafile’s exclusive intelligence and counterterrorism sources reveal. The hackers and cyber experts who recently attacked American banks and guided an Iranian stealth drone into Israeli airspace on Oct. 6, operated from this facility and its secret bunkers. No US or Israel action has been taken as yet against this threat to their national security.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 18, 2012
Eight nations are embroiled on both sides of the Syrian civil war, although the governments concerned pretend they are keeping to a policy led by the Obama administration of non-intervention. Amid cross-border clashes with Turkey, Bashar Assad has embarked on a scorched earth policy against his country.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 18, 2012
Instead of Netanyahu attacking Iran, Khamenei has developed a preemptive strategy for harassing Israel without going far enough to provoke an Israel counter-attack. The stealth drone Iran sent over Israel was not only invisible to Israel but also to US Navy and military radar in the region.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 17, 2012
Two Bashar Assad external supporters took significant military steps Wednesday, Oct. 17. Russia started moving advanced S-400 interceptors over to its southern military region opposite Turkey, as Ankara’s clashes with Assad’s forces intensified. Hizballah began removing rockets and fighting units out of their South Lebanon positions opposite Israel and transferring them to the Homs front as back-up for Syrian forces. This attests to the rising scope and fury of the Syrian army’s onslaught on rebel forces.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis October 15, 2012
Ten days after Hizballah launched an Iranian stealth UAV into Israeli air space undetected, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu unveiled his new security doctrine in a Knesset speech confirming elections on Jan. 22, 2013. He said that his light but firm finger on the trigger had given Israel seven years without war.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 8, 2012
Two days after an Iranian pilotless helicopter breached Israeli air space, Israel Monday, Oct. 8, rushed into position Patriot missile interceptor batteries in different parts of northern Israel, including Mt. Carmel, near Haifa. debkafile: The IDF has drawn initial lessons from the failure of air defense radar to detect the hostile UAV when it flew down Israel’s coastline from the north over Israel’s most sensitive military and industrial centers. The Patriots are there for more Iranian or Hizballah intrusions and to meet the current deterioration in Syria.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis October 7, 2012
Before it was shot down, the large helicopter which breached Israeli airspace Saturday flew over the IDF’s southern facilities, Beersheba and the Israeli Air Force base at Nevatim. It likely had surveillance equipment for recording and beaming back to its Iranian controllers the electronic signatures of the Dimona nuclear reactor’s air defenses and the American X-band radar station linked to the US X-band station in Turkey – the “forward eyes” of the US-Israeli shield against Iranian ballistic missile attack. The UAV should have been shot down much sooner.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 23, 2012
Hamas leaders Mahmoud A-Zahar and Deputy commander of its military arm Marwan Issa spent the second week of September in Beirut and Tehran finalizing and signing protocols covering a detailed and binding commitment by the radical Hamas rulers of the Gaza Strip to join Iran, Syria and Hizballah in a war on Israel, debkafile’s exclusive sources disclose. Israelis now ask what guarantees Cairo offers to offset the threat of an Iranian-orchestrated Hamas war operation against Israel from the Gaza Strip or Sinai.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis September 22, 2012
Not all the Israeli units taking part in a major military exercise on the Syrian-Lebanese borders on Sept 19 returned to base after Iran airlifted elite al Qods fighting strength and weapons into Syria and Lebanon. An estimated two IDF divisions are in place in case Syria and Hizballah with Iranian reinforcements go on the offensive against Israel. The Iranian buildup continues. US intelligence sources have since accused Iran of “secretly transporting to Assad large quantities of weapons and military personnel by civilian aircraft - almost daily.”
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report September 21, 2012
As Israel and Hizballah teetered on the brink of war, Iran airlifted elite Al Qods units into Lebanon and Syria to shore up the war capabilities and retilt the military balance against Israel.