DEBKAfile Special Report June 6, 2012
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton arrives in Baku, Azerbaijan Wednesday, June 6, amid Ali Khamenei and Vladimir Putin’s deep disapproval of President Ilam Aliyav’s pro-Western orientation and fast-growing ties with Israel. Frictions center on Baku’s $1.6 billion arms transaction with Israel and even more, debkafile reports, on the fact that the deal is matched by expanding Azerbaijani investment in Israel’s Mediterranean gas and oil projects. This tradeoff is marked for expansion.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 27, 2007
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Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Yemen have launched the vast Trans-Arabia Oil Pipeline project with encouragement from Washington, DEBKA-Net Weekly 313 revealed on Aug. 10, 2007. By crisscrossing Arabia overland, the net of oil pipelines will bypass the Straits of Hormuz at the throat of the Persian Gulf and so remove Gulf oil routes from the lurking threat of Iranian closure.
(See attached map)
The first Trans-Arabia pipeline will carry 5 million barrels of oil a day, almost one third of the 17 million barrels produced by Gulf emirates. The crude will be pumped through pipes running from the world's biggest oil terminal owned by Saudi Aramco at Ras Tannura, south to S. Yemen's oil port of Mukallah and west to the Red Sea port and industrial town of Yanbu north of Jeddah.
The $6 billion investment in the first stage will come from the participating governments within the framework of the Gulf Cooperation Council - GCC.
Rising regional tensions and the vulnerability of the Straits of Hormuz, the only maritime outlet for Gulf oil, to hostile blockade has galvanized the partners into urgent action to get the project up and running.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 3, 2004
If all the existing negative factors persist into the winter, most analysts predict oil could go as high as $50 a barrel. How would the world economy be affected if oil price remained above $40? The real price of oil (adjusted for inflation) is still around half the level of the early 1980`s. Even so, any price level above $40 would be detrimental. It would slow American growth by 0.5 pc and add 0.7pc to American inflation. Japan, which relies entirely on imported oil, could see its GDP growth reduced by 1 pc. The sharpest pinch would be felt by the American voter. Because gasoline is taxed, the American motorist would suffer more than car owners in other countries.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 4, 2003
Just before leaving for Camp David for his September 26-27 visit with President George W. Bush, Putin named Army General Anatoly Kvashnin, chief of staff of Russia's armed forces, as overlord of all Russian intelligence services - according to an exclusive report from Moscow by DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military and intelligence sources. For the first time since the tsars sat on the Kremlin throne, one man headed Russia's armed forces and its sprawling intelligence-security empire, making Kvashnin the strongest man in Russia after Putin. To subscribe to DEBKA-Net-Weekly click HERE. At the age of 57, Russia's top general stands at the helm of the SVR-Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (the Russian equivalent of the US CIA), the FSB-Federal Security Service (the Russian FBI) and the FAPSI -The Federal Agency for Government, Communication and Information. FAPSI is the Russian version of the US National Security Agency, but unlike the NSA, which collects intelligence only outside the United States, FAPSI handles electronic surveillance and monitoring and the gathering of trade and financial information both at home and overseas.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 3, 2003
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Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon holds talks in the Kremlin Monday, November 3, with Russian president Vladimir Putin. These talks, according to debkafile's intelligence, Moscow and Washington sources, focus on Israel's place in the epochal global strategy Presidents George W. Bush and Putin are developing. As the new concept hammered out in person by the two presidents unfolds, it will bear vitally on the worldwide battle against terror, the Iraq War, the terrorist offensive instituted by Bashar Assad, Yasser Arafat and Hassan Nasrallah, and the international balance of military strength, with drastic changes in store for the Arab Middle East and Persian Gulf, in particular. Bush and Putin agreed to co-opt the Israeli prime minister to their project, which will undoubtedly yield personal, political, intelligence and economic changes over the years ahead. The two leaders are aware they face some rough passages, but are determined to forge ahead toward their uniquely ambitious objective which is, in a nutshell, the establishment of a shared American-Russian world hegemony based on the twin foundations of US economic and military strength and Russian oil wealth.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 21, 2003
Although Iraq's first postwar exports are set to restart Sunday, June 22 - auctioning some 10 million barrels held in storage to coincide with resumed pumping - the outlook according to debkafile's energy experts is uncertain. Oil installations are far more dilapidated than thought, constant prey to organized sabotage and criminal looting. Oil wells and pumping stations have been repeatedly damaged at both the northern and southern oil fields - and not only by diehard pro-Saddam guerrillas. Local tribal interests seeking a stake in the oil industry are behind some of the gangs of saboteurs, and looters make off with replacement parts as soon as they are installed. Plagued most often by the lawlessness are the giant southern field of Rumeila and the Baiji refinery in the north. KBR, a subsidiary of the Texan Haliburton, which is under contract to help US army engineers repair and restore Iraqi oil production, has doubled its costs in one month to $184 million. The months estimated for the project stretch out as the damage continues.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 8, 2002
Saddam's announcement had the immediate effect of sending oil prices up by roughly 5 percent to above $27 a barrel. Because Iraq's fellow-producers will make haste to make up the difference, the price is not expected by debkafile 's oil experts to go beyond $30. The Iraqi ruler, who knew his embargo gesture was just that, must have had a second ulterior motive besides pressure for Israel's unconditional withdrawal from Palestinian territory - or even punishment for the joint Blair-Bush ultimatum that demanded he accept UN inspectors, or else In fact, according to debkafile's Middle East sources, the Iraqi ruler is on a fishing expedition in Palestinian waters to see what comes up in his Arab net.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 5, 2002
Friday, April 5, Iran's spiritual leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, called on Arab states to enforce a one-month oil embargo against Western countries, to pressure them to stop supporting Israel. A similar call issued from Baghdad on Monday, April 1. This following passage comes from the DEBKA-Net-Weekly, Issue 55, which was published earlier: As oil prices soared to a six-month high, Iran and Iraq began muttering this week about a Muslim-Arab oil embargo for bending America to their will. Now, they are not thinking terms of the 1973-4 all-Arab oil embargo - but rather of combining in an Iranian-Iraqi-Saudi bloc to stand against the US-Russian partnership. This embargo would only target the United States, Russia and Israel, but not affect Japan, China and West Europe.
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