DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis November 24, 2013
The first preliminary nuclear deal the six world powers (US, Russia, China, UK, France and German) signed with Iran before dawn Sunday, Nov. 24, failed to address the most suspicious elements of Iran’s nuclear program, i.e. its clandestine military elements. The expanded UN inspections were not applied, for instance, to Iran’s concealed nuclear sites - or even Parchin where Iran is suspected of testing nuclear-related explosions. Israel, the Gulf states and others therefore fear Iran’s nuclear program will continue to advance. debkafile lists seven of the most glaring loopholes.
Four new Iranian conditions block nuclear accord in Geneva. Putin calls Rouhani, Lavrov attacks Israel
DEBKAfile Special Report November 19, 2013
Early Tuesday, Nov. 19, the US and Russian presidents went into action for a last-ditch bid to rescue a nuclear deal between the six powers and Iran in the face of a new impediment and crisis: Four noes from Tehran. They fear the negotiating track may not survive the new crisis. debkafile note the strange paradox of two leaders, Ayatollah Khamenei and Prime Minister Netanyahu, implacable adversaries in all else, maneuvering with all their might for the same object of taking the wind out of the sails of this deal.
Nuclear deal may sink in Geneva between hardline pressures in Tehran and tough Franco-Israel demands
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 18, 2013
Washington and Moscow may sound upbeat about the prospects of a signed interim deal at the next round of nuclear negotiations between Iran and the six powers in Geneva Wednesday, Nov. 20. However, according to debkafile’s intelligence and Iranian sources, the way ahead is still bristling with mines, more so even than the first round. Iran’s Hassan Rouhani and Javad Zarif fear retribution at home for yielding, while France and Israel toughen demands. Binyamin Netanyahu reiterates that a “bad deal” won’t bind Israel and brandishes Israel’s military option.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis November 16, 2013
French President Francois Hollande and Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius arrive in Jerusalem Sunday, Nov. 17. Their talks with Israel’s leaders will show if France stands by its independent stance against Washington’s détente with Tehran and is willing to throw in its lot ad hoc with Israel, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt. Their outcome will determine whether Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu goes to Moscow next Wednesday alone or with French and Saudi backing. The next round of nuclear negotiations in Geneva on Nov. 20 will also be influenced.
Secret Israeli document to White House shows how US strategy shortens route to Iranian nuclear weapon
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 15, 2013
Thursday, Nov. 14, Israel sent the White House a confidential document outlining blow by blow how and when Iran will attain a nuclear weapon if the Obama-Kerry strategy for dealing with the issue goes through. The document was addressed to the National Security Council headed by Susan Rice, which debkafile reports takes issue with State Department policies on Iran, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The Israeli document illustrates in technical detail how the American proposal will shorten Iran’s route to breakout for a nuclear weapon, instead of delaying it.
DEBKAfile Special Report November 11, 2013
Secretary of State John Kerry landed in Dubai Monday, Nov. 11, to try and break up the unique bond of European governments, Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Arab states and Israel which stalled the US-Iranian nuclear deal in Geneva. debkafile: Washington shows no sign of toning down its deal with Iran, although US undersecretary Wendy Sherman and EU’s Catherine Ashton are blamed for damaging the process by opening the draft too freely for amendments by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zerif, which even Kerry was not ready to sign.
Israel accuses US of deceit on nuclear deal with Iran. Geneva signing drags out as Iran ups its price
DEBKAfile Special Report November 9, 2013
The delay in signing the first interim nuclear accord with Iran in Geneva prompted the remark by French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius: “There is an initial draft that we do not accept… I have no certainty that we can finish up.” However, debkafile confirms that the deal cut directly between Washington and Tehran ahead of the Geneva conference will be signed at latest Saturday, Nov. 9, or Sunday - in the face of French reservations, Israel’s fury and Tehran's opportunist bid to extort more concessions at the last minute.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis November 8, 2013
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu slams the interim nuclear agreement with Iran as “burying the possibility of a peaceful final accord.” He said: “Israel is not obliged by this agreement and will do everything it needs to do to defend itself and its people’s security.” debkafile: This was a dual warning: 1) Israel has abandoned its trust in Barack Obama ever complying with his pledge to its security and will henceforth act on its own. 2) Israel may yet exercise its military option against Iran’s nuclear capability – whether openly or covertly.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 8, 2013
Washington hopes by clinching a fast deal with Iran, albeit a partial and first step, to avert an Israeli strike and delay the transfer of Pakistani nukes paid for by Riyadh to Saudi Arabia.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 8, 2013
Kerry’s mission was to soften Saudi and Israeli mistrust of the Obama administration’s intentions on Iran and Syria. The Israeli and Saudi leaders refused to be placated.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 8, 2013
Netanyahu decides to turn to Moscow after he is convinced with Saudi rulers that Obama has decide to abdicate from Middle East affairs and leave its nations to handle their own problems with involving America.
Major Israel-US rift over Washington plan to let Tehran continue enriching uranium with sanctions relief
DEBKAfile Special Report November 7, 2013
Israel voiced early Thursday, Nov. 7, its utter opposition to the new proposal the US plans to put before the two-day Geneva conference opening later in the day on Iran’s nuclear program. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, when he met US Secretary of State John Kerry in Jerusalem Wednesday, bitterly accused the Obama administration of yielding to the Russian-backed Iranian position. Should Tehran renege on the deal, the US proposal leaves it with the capacity for enriching enough weapons-grade uranium in 10 days to build several nuclear weapons.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 6, 2013
Avigdor Lieberman’s unanimous acquittal by a Jerusalem court on charges of fraud and breach of trust, Wednesday, Nov. 6 - and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s instantaneous welcome of his ally’s return to government - dovetail neatly with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s announcement of talks with the Israeli prime minister in Moscow on Nov. 20. Lieberman is due to be sworn into his old post as foreign minister. An invitation for Lieberman to join Netanyahu would be significant in terms of Israel’s foreign policy posture and internal political balance.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report November 5, 2013
Shortly before US Secretary of State John Kerry landed in Jerusalem Tuesday night, Nov. 5, the Russian president’s office announced a short working visit to Moscow by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu would take place on Nov. 20 for talks with President Vladimir Putin. debkafile: Netanyahu has determined to explore the route trodden by Saudi Arabia, Gulf Emirates and Egypt, who - feeling let down by the Obama administration’s decision to pull out of the Middle East and conerned by its outreach to Iran - turned to Moscow for closer ties.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 31, 2013
The Kremlin believes its “nuclear restraint” deal with Tehran is a good enough basis for a final accord with the US. However, it leaves Iran with the option for reactivating its weapons program and building several atomic bombs in 10 days.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 28, 2013
It is hard to see why Israel is going through with the release of 26 Palestinian terrorists convicted for murder when the Palestinians have slapped down on the negotiating table 16 harsh terms - first revealed here by debkafile - that will defy even US Secretary of State John Kerry’s bridging skills. Each of those demands, such as Israel’s withdrawal to the 1949 armistice lines, forgo E. Jerusalem and accept 1948 refugees, is calculated to finally stall any diplomatic solution of the Middle East dispute.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 24, 2013
Obama, while pretending to be dissatisfied with Iran’s nuclear concessions, accelerates the wording of a draft nuclear deal with Iran via Russia and prepares to spring it on the world as a big surprise.
DEBKAfile Special Report October 22, 2013
Palestinian Authority chairman Mahmoud Abbas plans to derail talks with Israel straight after the second batch of jailed Palestinians are freed next week. He is also unraveling longstanding counter-terrorism security cooperation with Israel by reviving the “revolving door” for detainees. Secretary of State John Kerry hopes to head off the crisis by cajoling Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, when they meet in Rome Wednesday, Oct. 23, to make Abbas an offer he can’t refuse of sovereign Israel land, namely one-third of Dead Sea territory. .
Obama’s potential release of $12bn of frozen Iranian assets would be followed by $35 billion from Europe
DEBKAfile Special Report October 18, 2013
Tehran stands to gain access to nearly $50 billion if the Obama administration decides to free up $12 billion of frozen Iranian assets in the US, inevitably followed by Europe’s release of another $35 billion. The White House was reported Friday, Oct. 18 to be weighing this plan as a means, debkafile reports, to ease sanctions, without asking Congress to repeal or amend sanctions laws. This plan would fly in the face of calls by Congress and Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu for harsher measures against Iran after failed diplomacy in Geneva.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report October 17, 2013
The US and Iran are weighing a partial nuclear accord having given up on a comprehensive deal – especially after the impasse at this week’s Geneva conference.